I don’t recognize the United States anymore. I don’t know whether it’s because things have changed or we’re just aware of more nowadays or both.
The change in the politics is obvious. Both major political parties are more authoritarian than they used to be. That is so obvious I hardly feel the need to explain it. The media continually draw attention to the breach of the Capitol on January 6, 2020 but it’s not limited to that.
It is quite obvious at this point that Joe Biden has been declining mentally for some time and his staff and associates have been running the show, denying any decline all along. That itself is authoritarian. So is the Congress passing opaque laws which the executive branch agencies ignore or interpret any way they care to and defending that process as practical necessity.
That isn’t the way our political system is supposed to work. Congress is supposed to write the laws, they are to be enacted by the Congress and the president, and anything that’s not in the law is not in the law. Unelected federal agencies don’t get to extrapolate and interpolate at will.
The smallest Congressional district is now larger than the largest state in 1790. If we doubled the number of Congressional districts, each member of Congress would still represent more than twice as many people as each member of the House of Commons in the UK, the French National Assembly, or the German Bundestag.
The party leadership in each party wields far too much power and the two parties collude in preventing upstart splinter parties from getting onto the ballot. Congressional district are not only too large but gerrymandered ferociously to benefit whichever political party controls each state. The prevailing is that Republicans benefit more from this arrangement but that’s not what FiveThirtyEight found. Their analysis found that Democrats actually benefit more from gerrymandering. For an egregious example consider the Illinois 4th Congressional District. What would our political landscape look like with smaller, non-gerrymandered, more compact districts? We have no idea.
When I started this blog the president of the United States was the son of a prior president, the governor of my state was the son-in-law of a powerful Chicago City Council member, and the City Council member who represented my ward was the daughter of her predecessor. To my eye the distinction between that and a hereditary aristocracy is notional at best.
It’s even worse now if anything. The president has held elective office for more than 50 years. He was an undistinguished member of the Senate for most of that time, then an undistinguished Vice President. His competitor in the coming election is 78 and a billionaire without prior experience in government or politics. The last two governors of Illinois have both been billionaires with zero prior experience in elective office or government.
The change in the society is notable as well. We have the largest percentage of foreign born in the country in a century, possibly the largest percentage in history. The non-marital birth rate is around 40%—roughly what it has been since 2008 and sharply higher than it was a generation ago. Among black Americans nearly 70% are born to unmarried mothers.
The virtues that made the United States stand out among countries including voluntarism and contributing to charities has declined sharply. The participation in organized religion has declined as well.
We have been at war now continually for more than 30 years. We don’t call it that but that’s the case. The evidence all of that warmaking has made us more secure is negligible.
Alone among developed countries the life expectancy here is actually declining. The number of deaths due to drug abuse is almost 10 times what it was 25 years ago. I could go on but it’s too depressing.
Dave Schuler: I don’t recognize the United States anymore.
All societies either evolve or collapse, especially so in the modern world.
Dave Schuler: Both major political parties are more authoritarian than they used to be.
But only one party candidate for president says he intends to be dictator on “day one”, a notion supported by the vast majority of his party. You know what they call a dictator on “day one”? A dictator.
Dave Schuler: It is quite obvious at this point that Joe Biden has been declining mentally for some time and his staff and associates have been running the show, denying any decline all along.
From the evidence, Biden makes the important decisions. However, he has slowed down a lot, so his productive hours are limited. Nonetheless, he has been very productive in terms of legislation and administration.
Dave Schuler: Congress is supposed to write the laws, they are to be enacted by the Congress and the president, and anything that’s not in the law is not in the law. Unelected federal agencies don’t get to extrapolate and interpolate at will.
All laws have ambiguities. Even the original Chevron decision depended on whether three smoke stacks in a single facility counted as a single fixed source or three fixed sources under a law concerning fixed sources of air pollution.
Dave Schuler: We have been at war now continually for more than 30 years.
The United States has almost always been at war, some more justified (e.g. WWII) than others (e.g. Mexican-American War).
But leaving aside these quibbles, it was inevitable that the relative influence of United States would decline. Indeed, that was the American project after WWII, to reimagine a world where people everywhere would have a say in their futures. The United States was first among equals, leading great alliances by the example of its people and its democratic ideals.
As the world changes, the United States needs to be agile in adjusting as other nations assert their rights and their own power. Of course, America has to avoid continuing to make gross mistakes, mostly due to an inability to accept the new world as it is.
Leave aside unrealistic expectations. Among all nations, the United States is best positioned to approach the new world, having a highly-educated population with a knack for invention and entrepreneurship, vast natural resources, and sitting at the center of global trade.
But after all, tomorrow is another day. America won’t remain number one by shouting “We’re number 1! We’re number 1!” and beating their chests, but by doing the hard work of reinventing themselves.
And the ambiguities are interpreted by the courts not by the civil bureaucracy. It has been known for well over a century that the very nature of a bureaucracy is to expand the bureaucracy and its influence.
I agree. I don’t, however, think that the agility consists of rejecting that other countries have interests.
Dave Schuler: And the ambiguities are interpreted by the courts not by the civil bureaucracy.
Chevron allows for court review. They just give deference to the agency involved as best positioned to make those decisions when there is ambiguity. Are three smokestacks on one facility one static source or three? Sure, take all the thousands of routine minutia to the courts.
Now, you have a situation where every decision will be tied up in court for years, adjudicated by people at the highest levels who confuse laughing gas and nitrogen oxides, and gets even basic facts wrong in major decisions (truthiness). Furthermore, even though the Court claimed that existing regulations were not affected, the Court then decided that new businesses could challenge old regulations. Plus, decades of legislation have been devised within the Chevron framework.
It’s chaos. And that’s the reason the conservative principle of stare decisis is given such weight in common law. Chevron was overturned on statutory grounds, so Congress could in principle fix the problem.
But to return to your original point. No, this problem in Congress isn’t actually new. The minoritarian and contrarian nature of Congress has been there since the founding. That’s why slavery persisted. That’s why segregation persisted. The Civil War Amendments only passed because the Confederate states didn’t have a say.
But quibbles aside, America has problems. People have to struggle to assert their rights. What else is new?
Dave Schuler: I don’t, however, think that the agility consists of rejecting that other countries have interests.
That would be exactly contrary to agility, but an untenable rigidity in the face of a changing world.
I shall lower my head against the prevailing winds of hopelessness and vote Trump. Four years to save the nation.
“That itself is authoritarian.”
Authoritarian is being overused. This is actually the norm. It’s what Wilson did and what happened with Reagan, though it sounds like Wilson was worse. It’s what happens with our senators, congresspeople and judges. It really sounds like Biden has been functional most of the time, helping to explain why right wing leaders who have met with him haven’t been talking about him. It also sound like it is accelerating, which is a pretty common pattern. We dont have a mechanism that works for getting rid of these old people in office. It’s also just as obvious that Trump is in decline but that gets less discussion.
That said, few of the things you point out are new. You also ignore a lot of positives. Crime is way down from its peak in the late 80s. Labor Force participation rate is at record levels. 50 years ago if you were a woman it was much less likely you could obtain an advanced degree or any high paying job. If you were gay you stayed closeted as you could be beaten without any consequences if people find out, or fired without cause. Infant and neonatal mortality is way down. Exclude those deaths of despair and life expectancy is increased. Cars and transportation is better and safer than ever. People dont die nearly as often at work as in the past. Pollution is nowhere near as bad. Food is much, much better and more varied and food prep (household chores in general) takes much less of our time. Inflation was worse in the 70s and we had gas lines.
We are inn a bad stretch of politics with some awful POTUS candidates. SCOTUS has been making awful decisions which you mostly ignore. How can you possibly justify saying thousands in gratuities are OK? Still, this too shall pass.
Steve
And, if anyone thinks that Joe Biden self identifying as a black woman today will hurt his election campaign, then they haven’t been paying attention to his base.
And it was wrong in both cases. Certainly undemocratic. Probably authoritarian.
Here’s the LFPR:
steve: Inflation was worse in the 70s and we had gas lines.
Or to choose even more extreme examples: in the 1860s, chattel slavery and civil war; in the 1930s, economic depression and fascism ascendant. That doesn’t mean the United States can’t fail. But it does mean the American people have the ability and wherewithal to meet any challenge—if they are willing to face the world as it is, and not as they wish it were.
I see Dave got to the labor force participation rate before I could. I know you just spew Dem talking points, steve, but WTF? The long term trend illustrates demographics. The squiggle at the end illustrates Covid and subsidy. The LFPR simply has not recovered, and thats why a dishonest politician, and media, slavishly report a low unemployment rate. But its not reality.
Dont claim to be mystified why Americans dont see the economy the way Doddering Joe does.
@Dave Schuler
I recognise it, and I suspect you do, as well. It is the Ottoman Empire, and we have the Eunuchs fighting the Wives for control. I am not sure about the Janissaries.
I share all your laments, Dave. They are all true, and very unfortunate. But I do have to ask: What did you expect? Free beer politics, practiced with renewed and great vigor from the 60’s on, primarily by Democrats, caused people to be suckered into looking to government. Just to cite one of your points: when the government became charity, private charity dried up.
And then, tired of losing elections to irresponsible free beer politics, Republicans became big spenders. The holy grail of “bipartisanship” or “compromise” became, you vote for my bill, I’ll vote for yours. Pigs. All of them pigs. Just greasing their re-election. The consequences of their actions be damned. And this is why the establishment must destroy Donald Trump, the imperfect vessel he is. He threatens their great gig: unfettered access to money and power. (and perhaps, exposure to their history of legal misdeeds) He simply must be destroyed at all costs.
Seriously, Dave. Someone as bright as you are. What did you expect every time you pulled the voting lever? Unicorns and fields of beautiful wildflowers if you just vote Democrat? How about: entrenched, self interested and corrupt pols and bureaucrats? Its not a novel notion. Limited government. Its the only way.
Changing directions….
So all that you wrote was true, and sad. But they are long term, corrosive issues. I think the most important points missed since the debate and all the crappola that has ensued are these:
1) we have been subjected to a well orchestrated coverup of the nations CEO’s cognitive and veracity state. Many participants. A pox on them all, in particular media and institutions like the FBI, CIA and defense. I understand politicians, they are what they are. The President is “as strong and vigorous as I’ve ever seen?” 51 CIA: the Hunter Biden laptop is nothing but Russian disinformation? (suck much cock, CIA?) “The border is secure. There’s nothing I can do!” While the sex slave trafficking continues…. and so on
2) This point just doesn’t seem to resonate in our hyper-political world: This guy, plain and simply is not capable of handling a crisis. He’s not. And so who is really calling the shots? Kamala is scary beyond all belief. Jill? Vomit. Ron Klain? As much as I thought each was a horseshit president, if things got really dicey, please, please! Import in Obama, Bush or even Clinton. Seriously, anyone. Those three or Joe Biden? The nation has committed national self interest malpractice.
“As much as I thought each was a horseshit president, if things got really dicey, please, please! Import in Obama, Bush or even Clinton. Seriously, anyone. Those three or Joe Biden?”
I know that’s an opium den dream, but does anyone actually understand where we are; how we have strategically mispositioned ourselves due to power oriented, politics as sports, partisan politics? We have, as a voting public, and through abject negligence, exposed ourselves to a jello-head commander in chief. This is not comfortable.
I agree, at least directionally, with your laments, but those are only one side of the ledger.
And when looking at our current problems, I try to generally ask, “as compared to what?” Other periods in American history have been
much worse on the metrics you list and we got through them. I am hopeful that we will get past our current problems, by muddling through as we’ve always done.
I have found that I’m in the minority in retaining faith in our various institutions. My greatest concern are those who seek to destroy them in order to “save” them. That is primarily partisan doomers who catastrophize everything.
Of course, I have my own blinders. And one big one may be my kids, who will have to deal with whatever comes in the future. And I can’t bring myself to believe that their future will be worse for them than it was for me.
Andy –
I have only one question as it relates to America’s prior periods of turmoil.
Have we ever known a period when the politicians, the administrative state, and the supposed check – the media- had such control on information? Biased, self interested control.
And before anyone tells me we have a multitude of media inputs, how in the world did “we” not understand how impaired this man was? That’s irreconcilable.
Adjust the LFPR for age. Page 30. Page 32 for percentages. Didnt you take some math classes at one point?
https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2002/09/art3full.pdf
Biden is awful. But the alternative is Trump who is also severely mentally challenged.
Steve
Oops, better one. Only age adjust over last few years but should help explain. Will look for one going back farther when have time.
https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2023/03/what-has-driven-the-labor-force-participation-gap-since-february-2020/
Steve
You didn’t say “age-adjusted labor force participation rate”.
Note that based on your source the labor force participation rate for men under 50 is the lowest it has been for decades (other than during the depths of the lockdowns). That is not good.
How could you not use the age adjusted LFPR? You have written about the demographic changes n the US and there are lots of papers looking at why the unadjusted LFPR has decreased.
Steve
“Have we ever known a period when the politicians, the administrative state, and the supposed check – the media- had such control on information? Biased, self interested control.”
Most of US history. Some examples: The press and elites successfully colluded to prevent public knowledge that FDR couldn’t walk. Kennedy’s trysts. See anything from the Wilson administration.