Stuart Rothenberg lays out the actions by which Democrats could hold on to the Senate:
- Localize the elections. The more the midterms are about the president and his policies (or the Senate leadership for that matter) the worse things will be for Democrats in the “battleground states”. In those states the president’s taking an active role energizes Republicans and independents while Democrats are lukewarm about him. In a low turnout election whose voters turn out is all-important.
- The ground game. If Democrats can register more voters and get them to vote it could make a big difference. As the percentage of registrations rises, that’s a strategy with a shelf-life and it may already be less effective than it once was.
- Outspend the Republicans. Contrary to mythology, Democrats are highly dependent on large donors and those donors, especially public sector labor unions, have been spending as though there is not tomorrow because, as it works out, there is no tomorrow.
Finally, there’s what is ultimately uncontrollable—the news. If unfolding events break in a way favorable to Democrats it could make the difference in a close election. That’s the greatest longshot of all and I hope that Democrats aren’t relying on it.
The dems have a lot more money to play with than republicans, which is an advantage that has openly been discussed by both R & D pundits/strategists. The only caveat will be if people will be turned on or off by the barage of ads the DNC have slated to run, far exceeding those of republicans, during the remaining days before the midterms.
Dems also have a proven GOTV strategy. As has been shown in elections past, all the polls and partisan excitement are relatively furtile in lieu of a successfully-run last minute prodding to get your people out to vote for your guy! The republicans used to have a good GOTV organized under Karl Rove. But, since his departure it seems inferior to the one constructed under the Obama operatives and regime.
For these reasons, although I personally want to see Harry Reid retired, it remains to be seen if the R’s have the political savvy, funding and tech skills to take the Senate, even with a Senatorial map favoring them to do so.