or at least the writers and actors are on strike together which halts most activity. This was the story that this morning’s talking heads programs devoted a considerable portion of their time if not most of it.
To my eye the most interesting dispute is over the role of artificial intelligence and in particular generative artificial intelligence in the large language model form it has taken recently. It seems to me that the irony of the situation is lost on practically all participants. How much natural intelligence does it take to keep writing the same stories over and over again? And what is the role of the writer in movies that primarily consist of car chases and/or explosions and what little dialogue there is is heavily improvised? There is not a lot of creativity out there; no wonder they’re worried about generative AI.
The last time the writers and actors were on strike at the same time was in 1960 and Ronald Reagan was the long-time head of the Screen Actors Guild. He negotiated a pretty good contract for SAG. Maybe the same thing will happen again. I doubt. Not only is Fran Drescher no Reagan, the circumstances are very different.
These strikes are taking place in the context of an entertainment industry whose business model is failing. From 1913 to 1948 the model that evolved was one of motion picture studios that increasingly gained control of the theaters in which movies were shown. That ended in 1948 and the studios suffered a long painful death that continued into the 1960s. That coincided with the rise first of broadcast television networks and then with cable television companies. The rise of premium cable networks over the last 30 years or so saw increased intertwining of movie studios with cable television.
Now some of the biggest producers of “content” as it’s so blandly called are Internet streaming services, e.g. Netflix, Amazon, etc. Broadcast television is almost completely dead; just look at the Emmy nominations announced recently—almost all nominations went to product that was on cable or streaming.
The number of cable subscribers peaked in 2016.
That’s the context of these strikes. Movie studios have suffered possibly their worst period ever, beginning in 2020; broadcast television is practically dead; cable isn’t what it used to be. Add AI to this and you’ve got one fine mess.
Nobody has a right to a business model. I don’t know what business model will arise from present developments but it will be very different from what preceded it.
Historically, only a small fraction (<10%?) of actors and writers made a living in movies. It was always a hobby. Now AI / computer graphics might eliminate their jobs. So sad. Don’t care.
There’s a lot more entertainment competition now too. Many people don’t realize the video game industry, for instance, is about eight times bigger than the movie industry. Social media, Youtube, and other content all compete for eyeballs.
In other news, the American Buggy Whip Manufacturers Union went on strike today, declaring that the automobile was stealing food from their kids tables and demanding a cut of the profits of each car sold……..
Or the writers will find a way to out create.
For sure the pattern sit-com, soap, or melodramatic revenge drama will will be vulnerable to AI, but campy, cutting edge comedy will be hard to fake.
Speaking of AI, why not have the IRS use AI to help out with the lack of staff to monitor the tax issues, cheats, none payers, etc.!! This would make an interesting show, movie, film!!
I will give you my buggy whip when you pry it from my cold, dead hands.
Steve
I don’t by any means condemn the strikers. They’re doing what they can to improve their circumstances. Mostly I’m just pointing out that the business model on which they depend is dying. They won’t be able to stop that or counter it.
A great part of the problem with today’s movies is that they’re trying too hard to capture the “international” market. The difficulty in doing that is illustrated by what happened this weekend. Mission Impossible opened third behind two Chinese movies in China.
You can eliminate all dialogue and rely only on stunts, chases, and explosions but you still won’t capture the international market when Chinese and Indian productions are trying to do the same thing.
I think they ought to do the opposite–try to capture the American market. Let the international market take care of itself.
As Andy mentioned; the biggest challenge is the intense competition for the time users spend in front of a screen and subsequently their dollars.
If I had to guess; YouTube, Tiktok and other forms of social media is where people are spending the most of their “leisure timeâ€; while gaming is where males spend the most. If there was an “influencer†strike — now that would be something.
The problem with worrying about generative AI is just how little dialogue and acting is in Hollywood movies these days. Just compare the original stars wars from 40 years ago with the latest trilogy reboot. It’s shocking that was considered an action movie at the time.
That’s a good way of phrasing the point I’ve been making.
And just how difficult is it to take a 20 or 30 year old script and change the pronouns? AFAICT that’s a job for a Word processor not even generative AI. IMO updating old animated classics as live action remakes for modern audiences is an abomination. No wonder the industry is collapsing.
BTW my prediction is that if the strike goes on for any substantial length of time it will have several effects. More name talent will start doing voiceovers for games. And more will be produced in Canada or other countries.
“I don’t by any means condemn the strikers. They’re doing what they can to improve their circumstances. Mostly I’m just pointing out that the business model on which they depend is dying. They won’t be able to stop that or counter it.”
Right. If you worked in a steel mill you call it pissing into the wind.
Just personally, I watch a LOT less TV and movies than I used to. I used to go to the movies almost every week, now it’s a couple of times a year. Just from my peer group, I’m not alone, though most of my peers watch a lot more TV than I do.
The live-action remakes Disney is doing seem really bizarre. So far the vast majority are not very good and they’ve changed enough to turn off those who love the classics.
We had regular movie trips almost weekly and looked forward to going to the IMAX for special ones. Now it’s been years since we have gone. Other than some sports I watch, the wife likes Jeopardy so we watch that. The only movies I see are when we visit our adopted nieces and I watch Disney movies with them. They still seem just as good and bad as ever.
Steve
I think the last movie my wife and I went to a theater to see was Up. Most of the TV I watch these days (other than the local news and talking heads programs on Sunday) is streaming and it’s Canadian, British, or French.
I’ve thought of giving Italian or German TV a try.
The little kids in my house don’t care a whit for tv.
3&6 years old, their focus is Roblox.
If you don’t know, they’ve created software that allows children to create their own games.
Roblox’s challenge is to monetize that, since the target audience has no money.