In his Washington Post column Josh Rogin warns that Chinese President Xi appears to be dissatisfied with the status quo:
During the two leaders’ private meeting in the San Francisco Bay Area, Xi struck some ominous notes on Taiwan. Regarding Beijing’s long-standing desire to bring the island under its control, Xi said his “preference was for peaceful reunification,†a senior U.S. official told reporters — but then Xi outlined several scenarios under which he might use force. Biden reiterated to Xi that the United States supports the status quo and is determined to maintain peace.
But Xi’s reaction to Biden’s simple restatement of existing U.S. policy was to tell the U.S. president that China would not be satisfied with the status quo forever.
“Xi responded, ‘Look, peace is all well and good, but at some point we need to move toward resolution more generally,’†according to the official.
concluding:
Leaders in Washington and Taipei can’t allow optimism about the U. S-China relationship to obscure the fact that Xi is rapidly altering the status quo around Taiwan and interfering in Taiwanese politics more than ever before. Xi has revealed his true intentions. Ignoring his ominous words and actions would be the most dangerous policy of all.
My only observations are the following:
- Taiwan is more important to the United States than either Israel or Ukraine.
- At this point we are likely to lose a war with China.
- Some American pundits will not be satisfied until we fight a war with China.
My advice is that we should reduce our dependency on Taiwan as quickly as we can.
4. Some pundits will be satisfied if we lose a war with China, some based on party ID, others who believe it will lead to secular come to Jesus meeting and others because the check cleared.
Wonder if a nuclear exchange can be avoided and what China’s plan is to rebuild the rubbled chip fabs, power plants etc
EVERY wargaming of a conflict between two nuclear-armed countries has led to a nuclear exchange.
I don’t think much has changed and Rogin is reading too much into the situation.
War with Taiwan (and the US) would be very risky for China, and I think from an analytical perspective, it is important to consider scenarios where China (Xi) might believe the risk is worth it.
That is difficult, but it’s important because a decision to attempt to invade Taiwan would not take place randomly or in a vacuum.
With Andy on this one.
One thing if you follow Xi’s biography; is he shows an extraordinary will to slowly follow a long term goal. Just look at his methodical rise in the Communist Party after being purged as a teenager — and then when he became General Secretary how he methodically over a decade purged all challenges to his position. It very much isn’t his style to go for a quick resolution to his desires.
The other thing is Xi’s is first goal is keep the Communist party’s legitimacy and hold on power. Right now, the more urgent threat to that is China’s economy rather than Taiwan. Conquering Taiwan won’t solve the economic imbalances China has.
Of course, it must be said the US and Taiwan should not make Taiwan a matter of urgent legitimacy for Xi like pushing on Taiwan de jure independence.