Does anyone other than Karl Rove believe that Republicans will maintain control over both houses of Congress? Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia Center for Politics has published his final “Crystal Ball†before the election and predicts that Democrats will take control of both houses, gaining 6 seats in the Senate and 27 in the House. That’s not enough for total control but it’s plenty to dominate the legislative agenda.
Scott Elliot of Election Projection, generally more favorable to the Republicans, sees Republicans retaining control of the Senate with Democrats making a 3 seat gain and Democrats taking control of the House with a 17 seat gain.
Of course the only poll that really matters is the one on Tuesday but it certainly doesn’t look good for Republican dominance of both houses of Congress and, if the situation in the rest of the nation is anything like it is here in Illinois, turnout will be vital.
What impact would Democratic control of both houses of the Congress have on foreign policy? There’s an excellent roundtable on the subject at Foreign Policy, with experts from across the political spectrum weighing in. The most pessimistic assessment comes from Peter Brookes of the Heritage Foundation:
If the Democrats take the majority, the concern is that their basic foreign policy thrust will be “ABBâ€â€”Anything But Bush. This approach may feel good after years in the minority, but it’s no basis for a foreign policy. Our country faces serious international challenges, many of which were in train long before 2001. With Iraq, Iran, and North Korea on the boil, the last thing we need is a bitterly partisan foreign policy—potentially leading to paralysis.
and the most optimistic from Marc Ambinder of National Journal:
If Democrats regain control of the House, freshmen Democrats who are military veterans—maybe retired Adm. Joe Sestak in Pennsylvania and Tammy Duckworth in Illinois—will become policy generators for their party. Don’t expect McGovernites. Expect, instead, calls for a larger army, more special forces, more accountability in contracting, and a reordering of the relationship between the National Guard and the military. In the Senate, there may be a majority that views free trade agreements with decided skepticism. On North Korea, Democrats won’t abandon the six party talks, but it’s easy to see them pressuring the Bush administration about China’s role (with the crosswinds of trade and currency disputes) and even about Russia. Until the Democrats have a presidential nominee, they will speak with many voices. But they won’t lack for ideas.
Several of those participating note that the influence of the Congress on foreign policy is generally quite small. Quite true but the Congress does have the ability to tie the Executive in knots and other participants point to that as a possibility. Jeff Birnbaum of The Washington Post notes:
If Democrats take control of the House, the Senate, or both, expect oversight and investigative hearings—and not very friendly ones from President Bush’s standpoint—to pop up on issues ranging from Darfur to North Korea. Democrats will also push, with the help of some Republicans, to begin to remove our troops from Iraq, and it may happen. Partisan change would also signal public discontent with our policies there. Also, say goodbye to Don Rumsfeld.
Something to look forward to. Two years of auditing the prior six years of the Bush Administration.
I figure the Republicans will maintain the Senate (losing 3 or so net seats, while the Democrats pick up two less than what the Republicans lose, with the other two being Lieberman’s switch from Democrat to independent). I figure the Democrats will take the House with one or two seats to spare, but only that.
I predict that, no matter what the election outcome, unless the Republicans maintain both chambers and gain in the Senate, this will be spun as a resounding Democrat victory.
I wouldn’t be surprised if you’re right, Jeff. The remarkable thing is that Democratic gains are likely to be as low as they’ll be. Historic gains by the out party in the sixth year of a presidential term have been much higher.
While on the one hand very narrow majorities in both houses of Congress will tend to preserve the Republic (at least from the Congress), there are important matters to consider which will languish.