At the American Interest Walter Russell Mead lists the “eight great powers” of 2017. Those he lists in descending order are the United States, China, Japan, Russia, Germany, India, Iran, and Israel. If I were to put those countries and some of their vital statistics like GDP, population, and land area into a table some distinctions would emerge but they’re so obvious I’ll leave it to the interested reader to do that for him or herself.
Among those “great powers” the United States stands alone in economic power, per capita income, wealth, social and political influence, military strength, and the ability to project power outside its region. It continue to be the sole global power and will do so for the foreseeable future.
To whatever extent Russia is a global power it holds that status by virtue of its nuclear arsenal alone; don’t expect it to reduce that below present levels. Russia faces hard times ahead but it will continue to be a regional power for the foreseeable future.
Germany and Japan are economic powers; they have little ability to project power beyond their own borders. China is similar but its size and growing economic influence puts it in a class of its own.
India is a puzzle. Its growing economy, military strength, size, and resources convey plenty of potential. Whether that potential will grow remains to be seen.
Iran is a “great power” by virtue of its military, ability to project power within its region, and its revolutionary fervor. It will remain a regional power for the foreseeable future but I strongly suspect that to whatever extent it’s a “great power” that will be temporary.
Israel is the outlier in the list. I know it has a vibrant economy and tough military. But it’s the size of a U. S. state with a population smaller than Cook County. Punching above its weight, indeed. I think it’s only a “great power” by reason of its great power patron. Perhaps I’m prejudiced.
Note that South America and Africa are conspicuous by their absence from that list. What of Brazil? Or Nigeria?
The inclusions of Iran and Israel I find odd. And why are the UK and France excluded? Britain and France have more capacity to project force outside their borders than either of them, and both are nuclear powers. And he has China and Japan tied? China has ten times the population and nukes, Japan has the US Navy.
This smells of politics and pandering for media coverage. It’s a dumb list.
Yeah, I found the list peculiar, too. Which is why I remarked on it. In addition to the peculiar inclusions you note I see some puzzling omissions. Why India but not Brazil? Brazil’s per capita GDP is a multiple of India’s (a multiple of China’s, too). Brazil and Argentina are both regional superpowers.
I would probably put U.S. at the top and China and Russia tied next. If pushed to decide, I would place Russia as number two, not just because its probably has the second most powerful military, but also because it uses it and also because a denuclearized Europe is dependent on Russian natural resources.
If allowed to, I would place the EU next, because a large part of the purpose of closer Europe is to combine their economic, military and political power.