At the Eurasia Daily Monitor Hlib Parfonov takes note of something I pointed out some time ago. Ukraine is running low on personnel for its campaign against the Russians.
According to classified and partially open-source data, as of January 1, 2022, the population of Ukraine was 31 million, while the State Statistics Service of Ukraine reports 34 million, though there are problems with the methodology used to arrive at this number (RBK, September 16, 2022). The population dropping from 48 million to 31 million in 20 years is normal, especially as Ukraine has experienced multiple crises and outmigration waves during that period. According to Eurostat, approximately 4.9 million Ukrainians received residence permits in the European Union alone between 2014 and 2022 (Ec.europa.eu, accessed July 25) and approximately 3 million did so in Russia (Ukrinform, April 23, 2018). Subtracting from this figure the number of Ukrainians in the occupied territories (approximately 2 million), as well as those who left the country, the current estimate for Ukraine’s population comes to around 20 million.
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Considering that Ukraine has a population of about 20 million citizens, and given that the most recent data on the number of people mobilized into the ranks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces was last announced more than a year ago (at the time, it was reported that more than 1 million people had been mobilized), some estimates can be made based on how many new brigades have been created, the approximate number of those wounded and the calculations of the Ukrainian Ministry of Veterans Affairs regarding the potential number of combatants (up to 4 million) (Forbes.ua, July 8, 2022; Mva.gov.ua, May 23). Keeping in mind that Ukraine’s mobilization is permanent and that many have been wounded, the estimated number of mobilized Ukrainians totals about 2 million.
What does this mean for Ukraine? It means that 10 percent of the population is now involved with the armed forces, signifying that Ukraine’s mobilization reserve is rather small, with those pensioners who did not leave the country accounting for 10.7 million people (Pfu.gov.ua, July 12). All this means that Ukraine has approached a critical threshold with its personnel needs.
During the Vietnam War, in the South Vietnamese army, the percentage of conscripts to the population was 11.7 percent (Jcs.mil, accessed July 25). And this ratio was a painful blow to the state economy, and in general, almost all of it was sponsored by the United States. During World War II, Finland began to experience significant domestic problems when the number of conscripts reached between 14 and 15 percent of the general population. As a result, personnel shortages grew in certain professions, which led to significant consequences for the Finnish economy (Kinnunen and Kivimäkib, Finland in World War II: History, Memory, Interpretations, 2012). Similarly, in Ukraine, members of the Verkhovna Rada claim that there is a shortage of personnel in the energy, industrial and military sectors due to the mobilization of workers (Antikor.com, July 18).
At least in theory munitions can be replaced fairly readily. In practice it’s actually harder than that at least in part because we don’t have as much heavy industry as we used to. What you can’t replace nearly as readily is people.
Some estimates put the population of Ukraine that is under Kievan control at under 15 million. The important point is that the emigrants from 92, 14, and 22 were to a large extent young men. This is the usual pattern in migrations. Some 80% of the migrants into the EU and US are young men. That means that the percentage of young men in the military is much higher than 10%.
Russia is slowly eliminating Ukraine’s third, and last, army. Their best, the one created by NATO and trained by NATO for 8 years from 2014 on is long gone.
Besides running out of conscripts, Ukraine’s economy is wrecked and mostly shut down. The emigrants may never come back. And who knows how much of Ukraine Russia will annex. There is talk Russia will march to the Polish border, wherever that might be.
In July, 1914, the Russian, German, and Austro-Hungarian Empires abutted in Mitteleuropa. There was no Poland or Czech Republic or any other central European country. Lithuania was East Prussia, part of the German Empire, as was Konigsberg, now Russian Kaliningrad. Estonia, Latvia and parts of Finland were Russian provinces. Some Russian leader, possibly Medvedev has been posting those maps just to irritate the Poles. And they are hopping mad.
Given the authors background, is this a signal that Ukraine is on course to ask to “borrow” troops?
If those numbers are even remotely accurate you should expect Moscow to take a conservative approach and wait on events as even a stalemate in the war works to Russian advantage.