Friedman on Putin and Russia

I recommend that you read George Friedman’s remarks on Putin and Russia at RealClearWorld. Here’s a snippet:

But the Russians were not in Syria to save Bashar al-Assad, control pipelines, build naval facilities or intimidate the United States. They were there so Putin could appear to be more powerful than he was, and that was primarily for the benefit of his public. As the economy weakened and privations increased, he had to give it all a meaning, and Syria made him appear to be restoring Russia’s greatness. Convincing Western public opinion of his power was of secondary value, and in the course he made the cover of the Economist.

I think that’s quite astute. Putin is more of a politician than he is a strongman dictator in the stamp of Stalin. A lot of what he does from seizing the Crimean peninsula from Ukraine to his support for Bashar al-Assad is to maintain his domestic support. These actions have geopolitical implications and strategic value for Russia but don’t ignore their domestic political value.

Putin does what he does because it maintains his popularity. The polls that show 80%+ approval may be in part because Russians are afraid to speak their minds or the polls are manipulated but a lot of it is that he’s doing things that are popular in Russia.