For the U. S. Globalization Is a Flop

I sometimes think that Lawrence Summers is the greatest comedy writer of our time. At Bloomberg View he rises to the defense of globalization:

Since the end of World War II, a broad consensus in support of global economic integration as a force for peace and prosperity has been a pillar of the international order. Since the fall of the Berlin Wall a generation ago, the power of markets in promoting economic progress has been universally recognized. From global trade agreements to the European Union project; from the Bretton Woods institutions to the removal of pervasive capital controls; from expanded foreign direct investment to increased flows of peoples across borders, the direction has been clear. Driven by domestic economic progress, by integrative technologies such as container shipping and the internet, and by legislative changes within and between nations, the world has grown smaller and more closely connected.

This has proved more successful than could reasonably have been hoped. We have not seen a war between leading powers. Global living standards have risen faster than at any point in history. And material progress has coincided with even more rapid progress in combating hunger, empowering women, promoting literacy and extending life. Every single day since 1990 there were an average of 108,000 fewer people in extreme poverty. Since the beginning of the 21st century, global life expectancy has increased by more than four months a year. A world that will have more smartphones than adults within a few years is a world in which more is possible for more people than ever before.

Take careful note of his measures of success: lack of war between “leading powers”, fewer people living in extreme poverty. These are very desirable goals. That “leading powers” is a very fuzzy, “no true Scotsman” sort of measure is waved away. Since World War II, 73 years ago, the United States has been at war in Korea 1950-1953, in Vietnam 1955-1975, in Zaire in 1978, in the Lebanese Civil War 1982-1984, in Panama 1989-1990, in the Gulf War 1990-1991, in Iraq 1991-2011, in Afghanistan 2001 to present, in Pakistan, in Somalia, in Uganda 2011-2017, in Iraq again 2014 to 2017, in Syria 2014 to present, in Yemen 2015 to present, plus a variety of smaller engagements and a 40 year Cold War with the Soviet Union. Said another way except for a few brief punctuations of peace we have been at war the entirety of the last 73 years.

Does it really matter whether Americans are being killed by “leading powers”, by tiny countries, or by terrorists? Or does it just matter that Americans are dying and we’re spending trillions? For goodness sake for most of that period we’ve had no near-peer. And we haven’t even touched on the several wars between China and India, by any reasonable standard “leading powers”.

And, while it is true that China and India are far better off, accounting for most of those taken out of poverty, consider the graph above. The “Gini index” is a measure of income inequality. Over that 73 years we have become drastically less equal.

In summary tens of thousands of Americans have died defending the global order, a relative handful of Americans including Dr. Summers have become very well off indeed while the rest of us have languished. By my standards globalization has been a complete flop for the U. S. If the rest of the world wants us to defend the order by which they are prospering and we have become a plutocracy practically unrecognizable as the country we were, they should make it worth our while.

Dr. Summers is unable to explain how that can happen.