After reminding us of Sun Tzu’s remark: “All war is based on deception”, at Aljazeera Marwan Bishara observes:
In fact, both sides are propagating their own selective facts and myths, while censoring counterclaims, as each needs to maintain an appearance of progress in order to justify big sacrifices in blood or treasure. And both sides need to up the ante in order to harden public resolve behind their goals, which thus far have excluded any serious effort towards a diplomatic solution.
Russia hopes to degrade the morale of the Ukrainian resistance and deflate European support for a war that cannot be won, while the US wants to shore up Ukrainian and European enthusiasm for a winnable war, even if privately, US officials doubt Ukraine could recover all its occupied territories.
While the Russian media has little or no choice but to parrot the official line, Western media has a choice but chooses to trust NATO and Pentagon briefs and reports, regardless of their intentions. Take for example the declaration of an anonymous (why anonymous?) senior Pentagon official that: “Russia has committed nearly 85 percent of its military to the war in Ukraine†and “has removed military coverage from other areas on their border and around the worldâ€; Russia “still has not figured out how to use combined arms effectivelyâ€; Russia is “taking hundreds of casualties a dayâ€. Among Russia’s military fatalities have been “thousands†of lieutenants and captains, “hundreds†of colonels, and “many†generals.
Now I have no clue if any of this or other such claims are true, and nor I suspect do the officials propagating it or the journalists spreading it. But it is out there, shaping the opinions of the public, the elites and the experts, most of who believe Ukraine is able to pull off some sort of an upset if not an outright victory against its largely more powerful neighbour. But the Western and especially Anglo-American media seems to suffer from short, or should I say selective memory when it takes the official line at face value, as if the official deception during yesterday’s wars in Afghanistan, Iraq or Vietnam, has no bearing on covering today’s war in Ukraine.
I have no idea what is going on in the war between Russian and Ukraine. Neither, I believe, do most Americans. Even less so now that the war is no longer in the headlines.
He concludes:
Watching journalists and pundits in respected American and British journals exhaust the synonyms of fascist, evil and dangerous to describe Russia’s Putin, with little or no attempt at balance or objectivity, one is inclined to believe that Western media has largely been enlisted in NATO’s crusade against Putin’s Russia until victory. But what does “victory†entail here: liberating all of Ukraine? Or weakening Russia to the extent it no longer threatens other European countries?
The difference cannot be overstated, because NATO’s ultimate objective is to defeat Russia and deter China from following in its footsteps, regardless of the price for Ukraine. That is why both sides seem adamant to continue the fight regardless of the cost. Russia hopes time will force a weakened Ukraine and a wobbly Europe to blink first and eventually back down. And the US is keen on Ukrainians fighting on regardless of whether a “victory†is achievable, as long as the war exhausts the Russian military and weakens its economy. It is betting that Putin’s Russia will crack in Ukraine just as the Soviet Union imploded after a decade-long war against the US-supported armed uprising in Afghanistan. But then again, Ukraine is no Afghanistan; not in any relevant way, and Russia does not view it as a disposable geopolitical asset.
So even if Ukraine has in fact managed a surprise upset against the invading Russian forces and forced Moscow into an unexpected war of attrition, it remains far from certain that it could maintain its counter-offensive for another six months, let alone another six years.
As I see it the only outcome which assures victory for NATO and Ukraine is the collapse of Russia like the Soviet Union before it. I have no idea of how likely that is, either.
Some observers outside US/NATO think Russia is using 12 to 15% of its army, and that Russia’s casualties are a small fraction of Ukraine’s. The figure of 75,000 Russian casualties would amount to one-fourth of its entire army, or Britains entire army. A more likely figure would be less than 10,000 total casualties, dead plus wounded.
The West’s media and its governments are merely regurgitating Ukrainian press releases. There is virtually no independent reporting coming from Ukraine.
From August 20 to September 5, Russia will conduct large scale combined arms exercises in the East. Last year this entailed 300,000 troops, including forces from China and several other countries. How big and how many other countries participate this year remains to be seen. But Russian plainly has not committed anything like 85% of its forces to the Ukrainian war.
The US Army has not conducted large a scale combined arms exercise or operation since the invasion of Iraq in 2003, almost 20 years ago. These are skills that are easily lost, and it is probable that it is the US that cannot conduct combined arms warfare. The US/NATO might want to remember that the USSR invented combined arms warfare.
The only way Russia loses this war is if US/NATO commits its entire military to fighting Russia (and Belarus). That means virtually all of the US Army, Marines, and tactical air forces plus all of NATO’s forces. All of them.
Russians believe this is the Second Great Patriotic War and a war for Russian existence. They are correct. The June meeting of the US Helsinki Commission in June discussed the partition of Russia:
https://www.csce.gov/international-impact/press-and-media/press-releases/decolonization-russia-be-discussed-upcoming
Russia has indicated that it will use tactical and strategic nuclear weapons if it believes its existence is threatened. This basically means that a Ukrainian victory is impossible.
The delusions of the US Ruling Class regarding Russia, China, Iran, and, most of all, the US will get us all dead.
We are forcing Ukraine to fight? Certainly not my impression.
Steve
That completely misses the point, steve. The desire of Ukraine to fight is natural. Other parties are cynically exploiting this desire.
As Bob points out, without even knowing the real details, the notion that Russia will not win is absurd on its face. The only question is what the guerilla resistance will look like down the road.
There’s an important caveat. I would phase it as “the only outcome which assures victory for NATO and Ukraine is the collapse of Russia like the Soviet Union before it without collapsing the US and/or Europe“.
The US can collapse Russia, and the odds are increasing it will happen. The problem is it’s likely to involve an exchange that will collapse the US and Europe and who knows what else. No one wins in MAD.