Well, I completely wasted most of the morning (don’t ask). Perhaps not completely wasted. In my peregrinations through parts of the Chicago suburbs I don’t usually find myself in I found sure signs of the recession.
I’m used to seeing the empty remnants of defunct (or soon to be defunct) retail chains scattered around. Frank’s. Circuit City. Wickes. Borders. Best Buy. But those are isolated. Today I saw whole blocks of boarded-up storefronts not once but many times. Sometimes several consecutive blocks.
I’d seen this before in inner cities in the 1960s and 1970s but what I saw today was in what had been reasonably prosperous suburbs that had been farmland less than 40 years ago.
This is really different.
Don’t you know, there is no recession. Even Bill McBride says there is no recession. Therefore there can be no recession. What you saw was simply stores boarded up as the owners left for the fjords for the summer.
In the last year I’ve seen the same thing in different parts of Ohio, Indiana, Colorado and Florida. And of course, I’ve seen it for years in small town centers all over the country.
I think I’m part of the problem. Not only do I do less shopping (besides groceries) than I used to, I rarely go into an actual store anymore. Probably 98% of my shopping is confined to the local grocery store, Sams Club, Walmart, Target and Amazon.com.
Yes, that’s what it reminded me of, Andy. Small town main streets, maybe 30 years ago. I think this is somewhat different. Small town main streets were losing out to big chains in shopping malls twenty, thirty miles away or because people were leaving the small towns for larger urban areas. Neither of those is the case for these deserted blocks of storefronts. There’s just less activity.
Dave,
One thing I’ve noticed is that concentration seems to work. Big malls, surrounded by lots of stores and restaurants seem to do pretty well. The isolated smaller strip malls where the anchor was a local grocery chain are doing badly. And again, I look at my own behavior and see I’m part of the problem – when it was time to go shopping, we’d always head out to the mega-retail zone, especially if we planned to hit more than one store or planned to eat out too.
When we were in Ohio, the mega-retail block had a large indoor mall flanked by a Sams, Wal Mart, Target, plus all the usual big-box retailers and literally hundreds of smaller stores. We’ve got a similar setup here in Florida and I’ve seen equivalents in Cleveland, Indianapolis and Denver. In each case, these mega-retail areas seem to be doing ok while the 20-store strip malls are being shuttered.
So, just my perception, but I think there may be more than just the recession at work here.
I agree that too many of the magnet stores belonged to chains that have now closed for smaller strip malls to prosper.
There’s another factor I’ve seen that I didn’t mention because it would just have sidetracked the post: in-store inventories are clearly getting smaller. Yes, you can drive (sometimes ten or twenty miles) to a store. When you get there they don’t have what you want but they can order it. If I’d wanted to order it, I could have done that online.
That is, in fact, why I shop the way I do now. If it’s not a mile away, I buy online. There’s really no place for large bricks-and-mortar chains in that purchasing model.
That’s pretty much me as well.
You might think even in the green, leafy suburb of Naperville you wouldn’t see this. You would be wrong.
I have this bad habit of exercising my sports car out in the cornfields. Think DeKalb, Elburn etc etc. Hey! Anyone up for Galena?? The hills start to roll and it’s a blast.
I love these small towns. But it’s a mess. It’s sad.
BTW
For a guy who lived on Dearborn, and could hear the gunshots from Cabrini, I’m glad they deep sixed that. But every time we think about moving back in after our daughter finishes high school………..my god, Bucktown?
@Drew- You would love the roads I drive up in coal country. Miles of one S curve after another with occasional straight strips, up and down hills. Almost, only almost, makes me wish I had a stick again.
Steve
Don’t forget that according to the Household Survey, we’ve lost ~945,000 full time jobs since April. (See page 20 on the PDF.) This is being masked by the increase of part-timers.
That’s also being masked by the increase in self-employed, unincorporated workers. Lots of people faking it to hide their status from potential employers, or trying to make it in some multilevel marketing schemes trying to get by on Herbalife and the like.
Since March, excuse me.
When I get homesick I drive out to the Fox River Valley. The rolling countryside as you enter the river valley and the more densely forested areas nearer to the river remind me of Missouri.
The last time I visited Galena my wife and I stayed at the Inn at Irish Hollow. I suspect it’s a bit out of our price range now.
The Internet is a big part – but so is the recession; and more, the suburbanization of poverty. It seems that all the neighborhoods I enjoy in Chicago are areas that 30 years ago would have been economically desolate areas. These past 30 years haven’t been good for the low or middle classes, so this gentrification isn’t from generated wealth, but rather, wealth moving in to cities (and from suburbs)
Son of a gun.
Driving back from Iowa two weeks ago we passed the Irish Hollow Inn. Surprised it might be out of the price range. Maybe things are economically better than I think. Anyway. Nice looking place. We talked about going back. We haven’t been to Galena for a stay since golfing at the resort.
Steve
You can get a stick. And I confess to a German car bias, but the new 911 Porsches are awesome. Almost all with 20 inch wheels. But I’m confused. I thought you were in Florida? Coal country?
We go to Galena about every five years are so and stay at the DeSoto House Hotel:
“The DeSoto House Hotel opened its doors in 1855 and continues to welcome guests with hospitality, charm and history, awarding us the title of “Illinois’ Oldest Operating Hotel.”
Throughout the years we have welcomed such memorable guests as Abraham Lincoln, William Jennings Bryan, and serving as the presidential campaign headquarters for Ulysses S. Grant just to name a few.”
I can recommend it highly. The food is excellent.
What I meant is that, at least judging by the web site, it’s a bit beyond my wife’s and my price range now. The last time we were there we had a cottage to ourselves for the weekend, meals included, for, I think, around $500. If I read their rates correctly it’s about double that now.
Extremely romantic setting. Comfortable. Excellent food.
Drew- Pennsylvania. Ice lives in Florida, which is why we want to carpet bomb it. 🙂
Steve
And Andy. Also note that I am not opposed to carpet bombing large parts of the state. In fact I largely encourage it. The state is just CRAWLING with Yankees. I would love to see Florida return to being a small Southern state of little importance.