The world’s oldest known person, Nabi Tajima, has died at the age of 117 in Japan:
An official in the southern Japanese town of Kikai said Nabi Tajima died in a hospital on Saturday night. She had been there since January.
Ms Tajima was born on August 4, 1900, and reportedly had more than 160 descendants, including great-great-great grandchildren.
Her town of Kikai is in Kagoshima prefecture on Kyushu, the southernmost of Japan’s four main islands.
She became the world’s oldest person seven months ago after the death of Violet Brown in Jamaica, also at the age of 117.
Guinness World Records certified 112-year-old Masazo Nonaka of northern Japan as the world’s oldest man earlier this month, and was planning to recognise Ms Tajima as the world’s oldest person.
The US-based Gerontology Research Group said another Japanese woman, Chiyo Yoshida, was now the world’s oldest person in its records. She is due to turn 117 in 10 days.
She was born just about the same time as my maternal grandmother. I’m sure she is mourned by her many descendants. 117 is an extraordinary lifespan and her death supports my suspicion that there is an upper limit on the human lifespan. What is that? Seven standard deviations, eight, above the median lifespan?
But there’s an even greater meaning to her death. She was the last person known to have been born in the 19th century (contrary to popular opinion the 19th century ended on December 31, 1900). The oldest living person now was born in 1901, the 20th century.
So from the human standpoint the 19th century has faded into history, not merely into memory.
The best explaination of natural human mortality rates I have come across was this blog post from a decade ago https://gravityandlevity.wordpress.com/2009/07/08/your-body-wasnt-built-to-last-a-lesson-from-human-mortality-rates/
Given the beyond exponential rate; the maximum human lifespan is between 122 and 130. Which coincidentally is close to the biblical stated limit of 120.
Medical technology that changes this reality is probably 50 to 100 years away. We don’t even have the key insight to what makes Gompetz’s law tick; without that there can be no “antidotesâ€.
Yes, that’s a good post but I see one problem. If that were true there would be a small but finite possibility that somebody will live to 200. There is no actual evidence of that. I don’t believe there is such a possibility; I don’t believe any foreseeable development in medical technology will accomplish it.
That’s the thing about Gompetz’s law. At 122, the chance of living to 123 is about 10%. Let’s say there was 3 billion people born between 1801 and 1900, only 1 lived to 122. Then it would take on average 30 billion people to have 10 people that lived to 122, of which 1 would live to 123. That’s more people then have ever been born since humans were a species.
A small but finite chance runs against the fact the number of humans is also finite.
That’s my point. Since 1801 about 20 billion people have been born. The total number of people born is about 100 billion.