I wanted to call attention to George Friedman’s guest post at Rod Martin’s Substack blog. His thesis is that Russia has lost its war with Ukraine:
Wars are fought with an intent formed by an imperative. A prudent leader has to take steps to avoid the worst possible outcome, and Putin, as a prudent leader, prepared for the possibility that NATO would choose to attack Russia. He expressed this fear publicly so the only question was how to block an attack if it occurred. He needed a buffer zone to significantly impede a possible assault.
That buffer was Ukraine, and he on several occasions expressed regret that Ukraine had separated from Russia. The distance from the Ukraine border to Moscow, on highway M3, is only about 300 miles (480 kilometers). Russia’s nightmare was that Germany could surge its way to Moscow. Three hundred miles by a massive force staging a surprise attack is not a huge distance. He rationally needed Ukraine to widen the gap.
I predicted years before the war that Russia would invade Ukraine to regain its buffers. That Russia wanted to take the whole of Ukraine is confirmed in its first forays into the country. The initial assault was a four-pronged attack, one thrust from the east, two from the north and one from the south via Crimea. The two northern prongs were directed at the center of Ukraine and its capital, Kyiv.
The long and the short is that Russia does not have its buffer; therefore it lost.
I don’t disagree with Mr. Friedman but I would go farther. All parties including the Ukrainians and the Americans have lost this war.
Ukraine’s losses are obvious—you only need look at the death and destruction. But we have lost as well. Our losses are not just the billions we have given to Ukraine but any remaining vestiges of our sole superpower status. I don’t think we look nearly as invulnerable nor as potent as we used to.
Germany secretly prepositioning in Ukraine then attacking Russia with surprise? That’s nonsense. Germany can’t even put together a decent attack force, and they have shown no inclination to do so.
Dave Schuler: The long and the short is that Russia does not have its buffer; therefore it lost.
Before the war, most other countries saw Russia as a formidable threat that had spent years updating its military. Now, their military prowess has been shown wanting, and their military power has been significantly degraded. However, they are not to be trusted, and they will rebuild and continue to pose a threat.
Dave Schuler: Ukraine’s losses are obvious—you only need look at the death and destruction.
With grit and determination, the Ukrainians held off the Russian army, a much larger invading power. The guilt for the destruction lies with Putin.