It’s pretty early in the whole nominations process but just for fun let’s do some handicapping. Who do you think Democrats will nominate for president?
At this point I think the ticket is very likely to be Biden-Harris (although I’d prefer Biden-Booker). I’d prefer a Hickenlooper or Bennet at the top of the ticket but clearly Biden is the candidate to beat. He can get the support of the Praetorian Guard DNC and public employees’ unions, that’s for sure.
I don’t know about you but I’m seeing a lot of battlespace preparation that seems to indicate that Republicans have decided that Biden will be the nominee.
Biden has history of being a poor campaigner. My guess is that he finds a way to blow it. I think it is still wide open.
Steve
On the surface, his resume makes him look the favorite. And Trump recognizes this. But long senate resumes have not been kind to candidates lately, and if nominated, I predict he will not win.
GS, as I see it that’s the basic conundrum for Democrats. I can see candidates that can win the nomination and I can see candidates that can win the general election but I don’t see too many candidates that can get nominated and then go on to win in the general election.
Biden will not be popular among progressive purists. But he will be acceptable among New Democrats and black voters. Sanders would be popular among progressive purists but not among New Democrats and probably not among blacks who might well see Sanders as tearing down Obama’s legacy. Elizabeth Warren might be minimally acceptable to progressive purists and New Democrats but maybe not among blacks. Will the second woman candidate drum up more enthusiasm than the first? If not she won’t get the voter turnout necessary to win. And so on down the list.
A Hickenlooper might well win in the general election (depending on how much Trump fatigue there is by then) but he probably can’t get the nomination.
Just looking at the number of candidates and Democratic polling, it seems like Biden’s nomination to lose. If I were the Ds, I would try to get Biden tested more to avoid the race narrowing to a point where he could have a James Stockdale moment that jeopardizes everything. Biden doesn’t have any incentives to take any risks.
To repeat something I said earlier, I do not believe that Kamala Harris, Pete Buttigieg, or Beto O’Rourke can win a majority of delgates in any states. They’ll get some delegates via proportional allocation. You can’t win the nomination by getting some delegates.
Contrariwise, I think that Biden will, for example, receive the plurality of California’s delegates and maybe even an outright majority. If he holds Harris below 15% of the vote, she may receive no delegates from California.
The greatest likelihood at this point is for Biden and Sanders to split all of the allocated delegates between them (probably 3:2) with Biden receiving all of the superdelegates.
If polled I don’t believe I honestly say I recognize the names of half of the Democratic candidates. My sense is one of the relatively newer names (not Biden, Sanders or Warren) will emerge as an alternative candidate.
Biden’s weakness might be that he ultimately is everybody’s second-favorite candidate that shows up to the polls. His polling might be inflated by Democrats who find him likable, appreciate his service, think he’s safe, but aren’t excited enough to actually vote. Possibly.
I suspect Sanders and Warren have ceilings on their potential vote. Sanders, because he often tends to attack the party and annoy other Democrats, and Warren because she really should be doing better having thrown her hat in the ring early and forcibly.
It seems like someone else could slip into contention, but a lot of it would have to do with timing and getting some bump that creates a sense of expectations.
Biden is dumb as a box of rocks, and a tired old man. But he will probably win. Think McCain.
Bernie is crazy as a loon, with scary backing that would be exposed.
Harris is smarter, but just vapid and a parrot.
Buttagwhatever is Obama 2.0. Smooth but banal.
Hooper-dooper-looper is sane and sensible……………..but has no chance in todays Dem party.
The rest need to contemplate the next phase of their lives.