I’ve got to say that I’m skeptical about this story reported by Tom O’Connor at Newsweek:
A group of Iranian dissidents has unveiled what it alleges to be a secret nuclear site dedicated to developing a weapon of mass destruction in Iran ahead of a new set of nuclear talks between the United States and Iran.
The goal, according to Alireza Jafarzadeh, spokesperson for the People’s Mojahedin of Iran, also known as Mojahedin-e-Khalq (MeK or MKO), is to persuade President Donald Trump to demand the total dismantlement of Iran’s nuclear program in order to create an existential threat to the Islamic Republic.
“The nuclear program of the regime is a tool for their survival, if they accept to abandon their nuclear weapons program, that would clearly be a huge weakness of the regime,” Jafarzadeh told Newsweek.
“It will have a big impact within the regime as the population, which is already saying, ‘How in the world did we spend $2 trillion for nothing, of our wealth, of our money,’ would have more reason to want to overthrow this regime than they already had.”
and
Speaking at a press conference organized Thursday at its Washington, D.C., office, representatives of the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) claimed that the Iranian Defense Ministry’s Organization of Defensive Innovation and Research was covertly pursuing nuclear weapons-related research at a location known as the “Rainbow Site” in the Ivanaki area of the north-central province of Semnan.
The site, claimed to be operating under the guise of a paint factory overseen by the Diba Energy Siba company, was said to be involved in the production of a nuclear warhead, specifically for a hydrogen bomb, based on sources linked to MeK.
MeK is the leading faction of NCRI and claims to have an extensive network of members and activists within the Islamic Republic. MeK is designated as a terrorist organization by Iran due to its past involvement in violent attacks and was considered a terrorist organization by the United States as well until its delisting in 2012.
Satellite imagery was shared of the purported site as well as apparently associated off-site air defenses and military infrastructure. Jafarzadeh acknowledged, however, that the imagery did not immediately hold evidence of the alleged activities being conducted there, including the extraction of tritium necessary for the development of a hydrogen bomb and the production of warheads to carry such a weapon.
I would have significantly more confidence if the story were being corroborated by another source. It’s not that I think that the Iranian mullahocracy is pure as the driven snow. It’s more that I think that a group of “Iranian dissidents” has every motivation to lie about a program if they think it will convince the U. S. to go to war with the mullahocracy.
I should add that I have long been skeptical of any agreement with Iran that did not include unannounced third party inspections anywhere in Iran. We just don’t know how much we don’t know.
The recent Russo-Iranian treaty includes a clause that Iran will abide by the NPT, and not build a weapon. Prior to Trump’s cancellation of the JCPOA, all the parties and the IAEA agreed that Iran was adhering to the agreement, and did not have a weapons program. Ironically, Trump’s action and the European acquiescence to it freed Iran from all restrictions.
The only people claiming Iran has a nuclear weapons program are Netanyahu and his agents.
PS Trump has just sided with the neocons re Ukraine and adopted Kellogg’s demand for a Russian surrender. Any hope that Trump would end the war is dashed, and a bloody continuation until Russia occupies all of Ukraine is the only path forward.
Trump has so far resisted Netanyahu’s demand for a war on Iran, no doubt the victory of the Houthis over the US sobered him up. Let’s hope he doesn’t flip-flop on that war, too.
It’s old technology. Nukes arent that hard to build. If Iran wanted them they would have them. Various groups from Mossad to dissidents in the US to right wingers trying to start a war have declared Iran was 5 years away from having a nuke since the mid 90s. They have now had 30 years which means they just weren’t that interested. My one caveat here is that current circumstances have changed and they may actually want now with Israel pushing so hard to start a war.
Steve
My name is Alois Schuler, and I’ve been researching the Schuler family for 30 years. I found David James Schuler online and am trying to contact him. My researcher friend Basil Hohl in Australia suggested I try this website, as Dave Schuler is probably writing here. I’d like to get in touch with him so I can exchange data, as I’ve recorded his ancestors dating back to 1500. I would be very pleased if Dave would contact me. Greetings from Switzerland
‘ve been researching the Schuler family for 30 years. I’ve now found David James Schuler online and am trying to contact him. My researcher friend Basil Hohl in Australia suggested I try this site, as Dave Schuler is probably writing here. I’d like to get in touch with him so I can exchange data, as I’ve recorded his ancestors dating back to 1500. I would be very happy if Dave would contact me. Greetings from Switzerland
I think the game that get’s played is that Iran exceeds the energy enrichment standard, but progresses towards the bomb enrichment threshold. This of course shortens the time to actually make a bomb, whether they can put it on a missile or not.
As Dave observes, the inability to inspect is a deal stopper. Period.
Hurling invective at Israel is rather non-productive. Iran, through its proxies, has self identified for years as a bad actor not to be trusted one iota.
Dear Alois:
I have tried reaching you unsuccessfully multiple times using my gmail account and my AOL account. In both cases they were blocked by your server’s spam blocker. I am David James Schuler.
Thank you for reaching out to me. I, too, have been researching Schuler genealogy. I have some hand-written sheets with a lengthy family tree made by a Schuler who happened to be a Catholic priest nearly 60 years ago. He in turn had produced that family tree based on baptismal and marriage records from various churches in Switzerland.
I would be happy to exchange information with you.
Dave Schuler (David James Schuler)
P. S. My father had wanted to name me David Louis (Alois) Schuler but he and my mother did not like the sound of that so they gave me the middle name James which is a family name on my mother’s side.
DJS
Dear Dave, I was very pleased with your reply. Regarding contacting me, I had the same problems as you. So that we can establish an email exchange, write to me at alois.schuler@schuler-alois.ch. I was in contact with someone in America a while ago, and it worked out. I hope you can reach me that way; I would be incredibly grateful. Best regards, Alois
steve: It’s old technology.
1940s technology, and Iran has long had a strong scientific sector.
steve: If Iran wanted them they would have them.
That is probably correct (keeping in mind that the central government may not control everything that happens with the security forces).
Iran has stated that nuclear weapons are not necessary or moral. What they seem to want is breakout capability; that is, the ability to deploy a nuclear weapon quickly if their fundamental security were at stake. The Iran nuclear deal (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, signed during the Obama administration) put that breakout capability at about a year, which Iran considered sufficient deterrence to aggression, and which the United States considered sufficient to allow them time to react if Iran were to move towards actual deployment. Now, with the failure of the nuclear deal, it’s anyone’s guess, but Iran’s breakout period is probably just a few months or even weeks.