Do You Believe Your Baby or Your Eyes?

The reactions to President Biden’s State of the Union message have been varied.

Washington Post

When he boasted of progress, it was not, as he is wont to say, hyperbole. Inflation is coming down, thanks in part to monetary tightening by a Federal Reserve whose independence Mr. Biden has steadfastly respected. Despite higher interest rates, the unemployment rate stands at an almost 54-year low. On the international front, Mr. Biden has helped Ukraine resist what seemed, a year ago, to be unstoppable Russian aggression without triggering a wider war.

Nevertheless, as Mr. Biden spoke, approximately two-thirds of Americans think the country is on the “wrong track,” according to the RealClearPolitics polling average.

In response to their concerns, Mr. Biden tried to draw a contrast with Republicans, reprising ideas Democrats failed to pass when they controlled Congress — such as universal prekindergarten and higher taxes on the wealthy. His calls to expand the child tax credit, pass policing reform and codify Roe v. Wade in federal law would help some of the most vulnerable Americans, and they could attract some limited Republican support, but they would almost certainly fail in the Republican-controlled House. On the nation’s ever-worsening fiscal picture, he spent a large portion of his speech promising to protect entitlement programs for the elderly, without detailing a plausible plan to keep them solvent, let alone one that could lay the groundwork for the bipartisan bargain on national finances that the country needs.

Wall Street Journal

President Biden devoted most of his State of the Union address on Tuesday night to celebrating what he says is a long list of legislative and economic achievements—spending on social programs and public works, subsidies for computer chips, even more subsidies for green energy, and a strong labor market. But if he’s done so much for America, why does most of America not seem to appreciate it?

President Biden devoted most of his State of the Union address on Tuesday night to celebrating what he says is a long list of legislative and economic achievements—spending on social programs and public works, subsidies for computer chips, even more subsidies for green energy, and a strong labor market. But if he’s done so much for America, why does most of America not seem to appreciate it?

Polls are only snapshots in time, and few voters are focused on the 2024 choices. Mr. Biden could rise if the economy ducks a recession, inflation subsides, and Ukraine pushes Russia out of most or all of its territory.

But it’s worth asking why a Presidency as successful as Mr. Biden and the media claim hasn’t persuaded the public. Part of the answer is polarization, with partisans automatically opposing a President of the other party. But that would explain about 40 percentage points of his disapproval, not the other 16%.

Mr. Biden has contributed to that polarization with the partisan agenda of his first two years after he campaigned as a unifier. He jammed through Congress trillions of dollars in new spending with narrow majorities. His Administration uses regulation to impose the progressive priorities of racial division and climate alarmism, often without proper legal authority. The Supreme Court rebuked him on vaccine mandates and a national eviction moratorium, and it will likely do so again on student-loan forgiveness.

The President’s governing rhetoric has also been as divisive as Mr. Trump’s. He said a Georgia voting law was “Jim Crow 2.0” and Republicans are the equivalent of Bull Connor. Republicans believe in “semi-fascism,” and those who want to use the debt ceiling as leverage to reduce spending represent “chaos and catastrophe.”

This may rally Democrats but it turns off a majority. That may be why White House sources were leaking before Tuesday’s speech that Mr. Biden would avoid such rhetoric and personally edited the drafts to that effect. We’ll see how long Biden the Unifier 2.0 lasts.

The Hill

Niall Stanage remarks:

President Biden delivered his second State of the Union address Tuesday amid the customary pomp and circumstance — and to loud acclaim from Democrats.

But the speech also came as Biden struggles with mediocre approval ratings, the realities of a divided Congress and the looming start of the 2024 election campaign.

Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders gave the official GOP response.

and

He proposed an assault weapons ban, the codification of abortion rights, a new tax on billionaires and labor union protections — none of which has any realistic chance of passage while the GOP holds the House majority.

There may have been promises of unity and propriety, but Tuesday night was all about underscoring battlelines.

Biden will likely draw them even more starkly if he announces a bid for second term, as he’s expected to do soon.

Isaac Paul

Isaac Paul, author of the newsletter Tangle, writes:

I’ve always felt that State of the Union addresses were pretty boring and unimportant. I found myself switching between Biden’s address and the end of the Brooklyn Nets vs. Phoenix Suns game, knowing I could rewatch it in the morning on YouTube or just read the transcript. The most interesting moment to me was probably Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT) telling off George Santos on the House floor, apparently insisting to him that he didn’t belong there.

State of the Union addresses do little to change anyone’s opinion on political figures like Biden. While they give plenty of ammunition to the press for punchy headlines and fact checks, I think their central function should be viewed much like a president’s social media account. They are a statement of intent and laundry list of boasts. Except, unlike Biden’s Twitter, they’re aimed at the whole country rather than just his base.

In that context, my takeaway was this: Biden knows his economic message isn’t yet landing, and despite some stellar numbers on all the things we typically measure the economy by — unemployment, job growth, wages — people are feeling low, probably because of inflation and labor shortages. He tried to change that last night. I don’t suspect it will move the needle much, but we’ll see.

I will add others as I encounter them. I’ll also take this opportunity to make my annual plea: the State of the Union message in its media event form should be put out to pasture. It is a relic of an older day.

The title of this post is from a popular song from the turn of the last century (the early 1900s) which is apparently the source of the old wisecrack: “Who you gonna believe? Me or your lyin’ eyes?”

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