I want to take exception with Marc Thiessen’s recent Washington Post column. In the column Mr. Thiessen asserts that President Trump is 14 days from victory in Iran:
Here is the bottom line: The Iran war must end with a decisive victory. And that victory can only be achieved in one of two ways: either Iran capitulates or the U.S. launches a final flurry of military strikes.
Trump has given the regime every opportunity to sue for peace, and it has rejected his overtures. It is admirable that Trump is taking his time. He understands that what he is doing is important and cannot be rushed. But it is also true that he cannot declare victory until either Iran cries uncle — or he finishes the job.
He contends that the “job will be finished” in two weeks.
It was about a century ago that the philosopher George Santayana wrote that only the dead have seen an end to war. I suspect that is particularly true of the war against Iran. I think Mr. Thiessen is making two errors.
First, who in Iran would surrender to us? How would that surrender be made to hold? At this point there does not appear to be any unitary leadership in the country. One faction might surrender but that would leave the others.
Second, I think he’s expressing a grave misunderstanding of religion. Some Iranian actors operate within a framework where martyrdom and resistance have intrinsic value. That does not make them irrational but it does mean that the cost-benefit calculus Thiessen assumes may not apply in the way he suggests.
About twenty years ago a unit of time, roughly six months, called “the Friedman unit” was proposed in jocular reaction to columnist Tom Frieman’s repeated assertions, over a multi-year period, whether a decent outcome would be forthcoming in the war in Iraq. If Mr. Thiessen continues his assertions we may need a “Thiessen unit”. There would be 12 Thiessen units in a Friedman unit.
