Divide ut curo

In a remarkably warlike Wall Street Journal column, Walter Russell Mead outlines what he sees as the threats posed by China and Russia:

The global storm clouds are darkening. Last week a Chinese aircraft carrier strike group patrolled the waters east of Taiwan as U.S., Taiwanese and Chinese warplanes flew sorties. En route to Israel, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin conferred with his Filipino counterpart over the refusal of Chinese vessels to leave waters claimed by Manila. In a televised interview Secretary of State Antony Blinken again characterized China’s policy toward the Uighurs as genocide, blamed Chinese errors for making the pandemic worse, and warned Beijing against attempts to invade Taiwan.

Meanwhile, as Alexei Navalny’s health continued its mysterious and dramatic decline, Russian forces ostentatiously maneuvered near the contested Donbass region of eastern Ukraine and in the Russian-garrisoned Transnistrian enclave on Ukraine’s western frontier. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov warned of the possibility of “full-scale hostilities” as Vladimir Putin informed an alarmed Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan about what the Russian president called Ukraine’s “dangerous provocative actions” in the Donbass. Two American destroyers have been dispatched to the Black Sea; retired Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, a former U.S. Army Europe commander, warned that Mr. Putin’s goal may be control of Ukraine’s Black Sea coast.

His list of “provocations” is substantial:

China

• Tightening its hold on Tibet
• Genocide against the Uighurs in Xinjiang
• Crushing Hong Kong’s autonomy
• Attacks on Indian troops
• Massive naval buildup presumably aimed at Taiwan
• Intimidation of Philippines

Russia

• Annexation of Crimea
• Increasing Russian influence in Syria
• Cyber hacks
• Crushing “democracy movement in Belarus”

Let me bundle these together. Like it or not Tibet, Xinjiang, and Hong Kong are Chinese internal matters. However heinous the Chinese authorities are and I do believe they are heinous, in a Westphalian world our interests in them are quite limited. I do find the skirmishes between China and India in the Himalayas troubling. Unless we’re very, very stupid I think the most likely source of great power war is between India and China.

I know what Russia’s interests are in Ukraine, Georgia, and Belarus. What are our interests in those countries? I mean other than poking Russia in the eye? For it to be fostering liberal democracy in those places there would need to be some prospect for liberal democracy in those places and there is not. To some degree we were complicit in Russia’s annexation of Crimea. If we hadn’t supported the putsch that overthrew the elected (and pro-Russian) government of Ukraine and if the government that replaced it hadn’t threatened to reneg on its agreement with Russia to maintain its port in Crimea, Russia wouldn’t have acted. Our actions WRT Ukraine have been short-sighted and, frankly, stupid. IMO the Chinese have more interest than we do in preventing such an eventuality.

If we’re going to complain about Russia (or China) meddling in our elections, we would have better standing if we hadn’t meddled in Russian elections which raises an additional point. We’ve been throwing away both our moral standing and our soft power over the period of the last 20 years. It would be nice if we hadn’t but we have.

While I fully agree that Assad is a shmuck, he’s no bigger shmuck that anyone else in the Alawite regime who might replace him and the Alawite regime is the best alternative among bad alternatives. The Russians are pragmatists and realize all of that.

We do have interests in Taiwan, Philippines, Japan, and South Korea. How we manage and secure those interests over the coming years will determine the course of the 21st century.

I have studied the language, literature, history, culture, and politics of both Russia and China. I’m not particularly concerned about an entente between the two countries. It’s our fecklessness that is pushing them together. Worry about the U. S. first.