There’s an interesting article on Joseph Schumpeter’s theory of creative destruction at Bloomberg by Justin Fox:
In a 2012 paper for the Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation from which I got much of the data for my Fortune 500 chart above, startup and technology researchers Dane Stangler and Sam Arbesman also question whether the kind of turnover we’re talking about here really is all that reflective of economic change and progress. Departures from and additions to such lists are often driven by waves of mergers and acquisitions that are more about rearranging corporate assets than creation or destruction. “Turnover is less a broad economic trend,” they write, “than a discrete temporal and sectoral phenomenon.” They also cite historical research showing waves of corporate churn in the 1920s and the turn of the 20th century that seem to have been at least as disruptive as those of the 1980s and 1990s.
So yes, modern capitalism produces and probably requires a lot of creative destruction. But this isn’t a relentless, ever-accelerating process. It goes in waves. For about 15 years now we’ve been in a lull, and it’s not at all clear when or how it will end.
There are some things that I think he misses in his piece. One of them is that creative destruction is creative. It results in greater efficiency which in turn leads to more jobs and higher incomes. Another is that there’s a lot more ferment in newly developing sectors than in old, established sectors.
There are multiple reasons for that including that established sectors are much better equipped to harness the force of government in their favor. In my view we missed a prime opportunity a decade ago to foster creative destruction rather than impede it by propping up General Motors and the big banks.
We should be much more closely focused on helping people hurt by the inevitable creative destruction and much less focused on helping companies or even business models.
“Turnover is less a broad economic trend,†they write, “than a discrete temporal and sectoral phenomenon.”
You don’t say. I guess late in life they finally have learned industry lifecycle 101. You hit upon a favorite soap box topic of mine. Rather than prop up the decrepit – See: GM – let the shakeouts and consolidations occur. It hurts, but it is necessary.
And don’t have academics debasing it as asset reshuffling. We have enough trouble keeping the politicians from keeping dead men walking, walking.
Off topic, but it might be a good time to post Tasty Bites’ advice to hurricae survivors. Lots of good information in that list. I think you have it, but I can supply it if necessary.
Speaking of creative destruction, Mr. Schuler, I want to talk to you as an engineer. I’ve been having some intuitions lately that might have to do with nuclear fusion. I don’t know enough about current containment designs, but I have an idea of building containment based on acoustical principles, just as sound is contained within a music hall.
My ideas are running this way: 1) The energy is generated by a rod assembly that is raised and lowered according to harmonic principles. That will generate waves of energy, so there is not a constant explosion.
2) Those waves would not be of such an intensity that they would have to be FORCIBLY containment. An element of modulation could be introduced.
3) Some assemblage of materials science and musical know-how could somehow create a shell and regulated outflow that could be channeled more easily than current designs.
The caveat to all of this is that I have no knowledge of the current state of the science or design. I’m really just woolgathering. Shooting in the dark.
You decide whether this should be posted or not. You may well be the only person who can understand what I’m trying to get at.
The Baschet sculptures are the inspiration. I have such a strange mind. No surprise that it should end with bafflement.
“Oh, Janis…you are always so literal!”
Could one create a system of baffles that would contain the radiation? Yes, but it would probably require more space, materials, and maintenance than the present systems which rely on various barriers.
Systems along the lines you’re describing have actually been investigated. They haven’t been found to be economical.
Nothing new is going to be economical. Only scale production.
Refinements and economizing would have to, by historical standards even, come later.
How much is an aircraft carrier?
An aircraft carrier costs about $13 billion. We have 19 of them (11 in service). France, China, and Russia each have one in service. The UK no longer has any.
What do you think would be necessary to seriously fund research on a system along the lines I suggested?
Department or Agency Outlays
Dept. of Agriculture $133 billion USD
Dept. of Commerce $9.28 billion USD
Dept. of Defense – Military Programs $516 billion USD
Dept. of Education $60.2 billion USD
Dept. of Energy $26.7 billion USD
Dept. of Health and Human Services $1.01 trillion USD
Dept. of Homeland Security $42 billion USD
Dept. of Housing and Urban Development $35.8 billion USD
Dept. of the Interior $13.2 billion USD
Dept. of Justice $31 billion USD
Dept. of Labor $44.8 billion USD
Dept. of State $25.4 billion USD
Dept. of Transportation $75.5 billion USD
Dept. of the Treasury $544 billion USD
Dept. of Veterans Affairs $159 billion USD
Environmental Protection Agency $7.65 billion USD
General Services Administration $1.13 billion USD
International Assistance Programs $23.3 billion USD
NASA $16.9 billion USD
Social Security Administration $908 billion USD
+
Other Departments and Agencies $182 billion USD
Allowances $12.1 billion USD
Undistributed Offsetting Receipts -$225 billion USD
Gross energy costs by state:
https://www.eia.gov/state/seds/sep_prices/notes/pr_GDP.pdf
Most of the Department of Agriculture’s budget is devoted to transfer payments. About half is SNAP (food stamps), about a quarter crop subsidies, the rest is administration, food inspectors, etc.
In real terms the DoD’s budget is less than it was 20 years ago. I still think it’s a good place for cuts but we’d need to stop fighting elective wars.
The SSA’s just under $1 trillion is nearly all transfer payments mostly SSRI, SSDI.
HHS is mostly Medicare and Medicaid. I’d call that mostly transfer payments but technically it isn’t.
Where’d you get the figure for Treasury? IIRC its operating budget is around $14 billion.
https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/BUDGET-2017-BUD/pdf/BUDGET-2017-BUD.pdf
Page 120 has receipts. I might not be reading this right, I’ll admit and cow.
Got it. The Treasury figure is revenues. When you pay your income taxes, you make the check out to “U. S. Treasury”. The DoA, DoD figures are outlays.
If NASA has a budget of $16 billion and can sent a craft to Saturn, can’t we do a little something on Earth?
If we killed all the Indians, how much would we save?
Let’s not kill any Indians. I like Indians.
There’s plenty of private and industrial wealth in this country that would shake loose quickly if something as momentous as a breakthrough in nuclear fusion were on the near horizon.