Since I’m working from home I thought I’d put that poster up to show that I’m being compliant.
As of this writing at least 22 states have put “stay at home” directives in place. I think that the notion that these lockdowns will actually impede the spread of COVID-19 enough to prevent a critical breakdown of the health care system is fanciful for several reasons.
- Many people are uncivilized. “Civilized” is from the Latin civis, a city, and literally means the qualities and behaviors necessary for people to live together in a city. There are many reasons for this. Some people think that the rules don’t apply to them. You only need to drive for a few minutes up on the North Shore to be convinced of that. These are people who have enough clout that there will be no serious repercussions for their failures to comply with rules. Guess what? They can spread disease, too.
Here in Chicago many people are indifferent to the rules and have become accustomed to living outside them. To expect them to suddenly become compliant is farfetched.
- Children are, basically, feral. They’re not just uncivilized. They have not been inculcated with the rules of civilization. They are not adults and shouldn’t be expected to act like adults. During these “stay at home” periods allowing your children out-of-doors without adult supervision and expecting them to conform to the rules is uncivilized behavior on your part.
Every morning I take a 2-3 mile walk with my 7 year old Samoyed bitch, Kara. 3-5 miles on weekends. That’s in compliance with the “stay at home” directives. This morning as has been the case each morning since the “stay at home” directive we saw multiple people failing to comply with “social distancing” and multiple unsupervised children. Far fewer of them than usual but still there were some.
2 sigma (31 per 100) non-compliance will not slow the spread of COVID-19. Neither will 3 sigma non-compliance (7 per 100). Who knows how many others a single non-compliant infected individual can infect? A hundred? A thousand? More?
I think it would take at least six sigma compliance and maybe even perfect compliance. That’s unrealistic. What that tells us is that, while these “lockdowns” may have some limited effectiveness, they can’t be our only strategy. As I’ve said before I think that a working strategy in the United States will need to harness our human and material resources in a way I haven’t seen yet during this crisis.
Promoting a homegrown Stasi like LA and Kansas City seem to be doing ain’t a solution either. Neither is banning the off-label use of HCQ because some stupid consumed a lethal dose of fish tank cleaner (I think that story may be developing into a murder case, a life insurance policy had been recently taken out by the victim). Doing something just to ‘Do Something’ is counterproductive because it promotes fright more than compliance. As you’ve pointed out, a total lockdown might save some lives that otherwise would be lost to Kung Flu, but how many will die from other causes as a result? I like your earlier analogy of driving off a cliff to avoid a wreck.
There’s a crapload of fearmongering going on, some of it aimed at Orange Man Bad but a lot to promote viewership and ad revenue. Both are reprehensible. Much if not most of our information providers seem to have shifted over to partisan opinion and narrative building, they want to not just shape the news and control what information is being disseminated but to shape government policy as well. To which I say: Run for Public Office, dammit. Don’t tell me to put on a coat because you say it’s cold, I can judge temperature for myself, thank you.
“Many people are uncivilized”
You are being charitable. I’d like to see a poll, no, worse. Many people cannot be contacted by pollsters and have never heard of this disease.
They don’t read, or can’t. They only care about the next fix. They’re on the streets as if nothing is different. This is going to be a long slog with no definitive end.