I have a question about this piece at East Asia Forum:
China is the world’s largest trading nation and becoming more important. Whereas total US goods trade fell to US$3.8 trillion in 2020 from US$4.2 trillion in 2019 before recovering to US$4.7 trillion in 2021, total Chinese trade in goods increased from US$4.6 trillion in 2019 to US$4.7 trillion in 2020 and grew to a staggering US$6 trillion in 2021. China’s trade is predominantly market-driven, not state-driven. The private sector accounts for roughly 92 per cent of China’s exports, of which 42 per cent are from foreign invested firms. That is a huge constraint on policymakers.
Trade in goods between China and the United States grew 19 per cent in 2021 to US$693 billion according to US data, even though China fell short of the agreed purchases of US goods under their Phase One trade deal.
American companies expanded their operations in China with US$38 billion of new investment in 2021 to bring the US stock of direct investment in China to US$118 billion. Japanese investment into China also continued to increase, further integrating their economies. Total direct investment flows into China rose by a third in 2021 to a record high of US$334 billion for the year. That’s a lot of businesses committing to the Chinese market with new factories and operations even with Chinese borders closed and harsh domestic policies in pursuit of zero-Covid.
The mutually beneficial economic relationship runs counter to Washington’s instinct to counter every Chinese interest globally. The zero-sum approach to China dusts off the Cold War template.
Here’s my question. Is it true, as said later in the piece, that China has “fundamentally bought into the US-led order, not sought to overthrow it tout court”? I don’t see things quite that way. IMO the Chinese authorities see global trade as a zero sum game, are willing to reap whatever benefits they may from the “US-led order”, but chafe under the very order in which they’ve benefited so greatly.
After Deng’s reforms and its admission to the WTO, China was able to use the US-controlled world order to make a real revolution. They moved 800 million people from poverty to middle class or better life styles. They built an enormous infrastructure, one whole San Francisco per month, more than half of all the high-speed rail in the world, a very high tech and very inventive economy, a large modern military, the BRI…
They still must lift another 600 million people from poverty, and they intend to become the world’s preeminent super power and militarily dominant hegemon.
So, they need the US-controlled world order to continue to develop, and they especially need the US and EU markets to earn the monies needed. They are obviously chaffing. I do not expect them to do anything rash and to continue their present course, but (big, gigantic but) the continual provocations by our lunatic neocons could push them into a Taiwan war, perhaps as soon as this fall.
Eventually, if peace continues in Asia, China will simply dwarf us in every possible way. They will not have to fight to become World Hegemon, we will submit. This will come as a relief to the so-called Global South.
The Global South hates the US/EU/NATO for continuing Europe’s and our19th/20th Century colonialism. They generally support Russian in its war against Ukraine, and refuse to support our sanctions. BRICS is now BRICSIA, and continues to grow. SCO continues to gain members, as does the EAEU. We are becoming isolated.