I thought I’d pass along this assessment from Robert Samuelson at the Washington Post:
The CBO responded to a request by Senate Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.) to compare its latest forecast with those prepared in January. The loss was a stunning $7.9 trillion over an 11-year period, with the figures adjusted to eliminate inflation. The main causes were the coronavirus and related lockdown, which caused a surge of joblessness.
That actually sounds light to me. $8 trillion over 11 years in a $21 trillion economy is not nearly as devastating as current conditions feel. He continues:
That’s about 3 percent of cumulative loss to gross domestic product over the same period, says the CBO. There may be more to come. Employment, car sales and housing starts could all take a hit when the CBO recalculates other changes since January. In particular, it hasn’t re-estimated changes in productivity — overall efficiency, which could result in significantly faster or slower economic growth.
Economist Mark Zandi of Moody’s Analytics believes that the CBO’s forecast may be too optimistic. “I don’t think the economy will ever fully get back to the GDP growth rate [before the pandemic], which CBO expects by the end of this decade,†he said in an email. He cited many factors that could slow growth: “diminished globalization — including less trade, immigration and foreign investment — and a much more precarious [budget] situation.â€
The one word of advice that I can give is that we need to choose more wisely. Security demands that we bring supply chains closer to home. While that alone won’t satisfy the proponents of a “Green New Deal”, it would certainly be better from an environmental perspective than the status quo ante. And I think it would be much better for all parties to be more tightly interconnected with Canada, Mexico, and other Western Hemisphere countries than our present dependence on China.
“And I think it would be much better for all parties to be more tightly interconnected with Canada, Mexico, and other Western Hemisphere countries than our present dependence on China.”
Amen, brother. Amen.
The issue of recovery is a truly vexing one. It will be situational. We have businesses in TX, FL, FL, OH (and globally in Europe and S America), CA, NJ, MI and PA. You get different stories with each. In the aggregate? Who knows. I lean towards optimism and recovery.
I talk to my partner in Boston; he’s crawled up into the fetal position. My partner in Lake Forest (Lake Fucking Forest??); he’s purchasing firearms. Me? SC is fine. NC, fine.
Here in Beaufort Cty SC the attitude is virus, smirush. Oh, and if you Antifa people want to come down and cause trouble? We own guns, we use them, and you are easy meat. Same in GA if you get outside Atlanta; and FL, well, Florida. We are not dropping like flies from corona down here.
So I don’t know how the country as a whole will do. If people want to be ruled by DiBlasio, Cuomo, the Michigan witch, Pritsker, the idiot mayors in Seattle, Portland and LA……..so be it. Weak people. I’m glad I’m not there and you are going to get your vote back…….good and hard.
Down here we are all but laughing and spitting at the criminally dishonest media and their followers, the lefty voters and their stupidity, and the pearl clutchers. But we me mourn for those trapped in the leftist hellholes. They deserve better. Dave deserves better, Jan deserves better. I don’t know where others live, but I hope its not in an LA or IL. It was only 5 short years ago we escaped…. But in all cold blooded honesty, these cities problems are self inflicted wounds. Predictable, and predicted.
Just got a data dump this morning. Talked with fellow chairs. Of note, I think, was our data on screening colonoscopies. We have been calling and telling people we are open for business, come on back. 50% of people said they were going to wait at least a year, hoping the virus will be gone or we have a vaccine. 30% want to wait a couple more months. 20% agreed to come in. Of course we had a lot of disease, but I think a lot of people are going to hesitate about going out to eat, bars, travel and engaging with the entertainment sector, the parts of the economy hit hardest. Just like screening colonoscopies those are all pretty elective activities.
“We own guns, we use them, and you are easy meat.”
My, arent you the badass!
“if you Antifa people want to come down”
Find any yet? LOL
Steve
“We own guns, we use them, and you are easy meat.â€
My, arent you the badass!
“if you Antifa people want to come downâ€
Find any yet? LOL”
I’m not surprised the irony escapes you. That’s the point. They don’t come here. Better to prey on the sheep in Democrat controlled cities and states. WTFU
“A former Obama administration intelligence official who worked in both the Departments of State and Defense has guaranteed bail for a human rights lawyer accused of firebombing a police vehicle in New York City.
The former official, Salmah Rizvi, told a judge the alleged firebomber is her “best friend.” Rizvi, now an attorney at the D.C.-based law firm Ropes & Gray, helped secure the release of fellow lawyer Urooj Rahman by agreeing to be a suretor for her bail. That means Rizvi is liable for the full cost of the $250,000 bail if Rahman fails to obey the court’s orders.
Rahman was released to home confinement over the objections of government attorneys after her arrest on Saturday for throwing a lit Molotov cocktail through the window of an NYPD vehicle. Evidence presented by prosecutors included images of Rahman holding a Molotov cocktail in the passenger seat of a van that was later found to be full of the necessary materials for making the explosive devices.
U.S. District Judge Margo Brodie acknowledged the strong evidence against Rahman, who was also accused of distributing the incendiary devices to other rioters, but agreed to grant her bail due to the “willingness of family and friends to sign on as suretors,” according to a report from Law360.”
I’m sure Obama is proud.
I am 76 years old. COVID lockdowns and the Antifa/BLM riots are the worst crisis of my life. Viet Nam is second. We have at least 40 million unemployed (certainly more) and a reduction in GDP that might be as high as 50%. The riots mean that recovery will be delayed substantially. If Peter Turchin and the authors of The Fourth Turning are right, we are looking at a decade of political violence. I hope we can avoid a war with RussiaChina.
‘50% of people said they were going to wait at least a year, hoping the virus will be gone or we have a vaccine. 30% want to wait a couple more months. 20% agreed to come in.’
I hope you have a job next year, Steve (and I do, despite our political differences you helped save a lot of people’s lives). You and your fellow workers and a lot of restaurant workers and a lot of other people. Thanks to the MSM convincing a lot of people that not wearing a mask or performing proper social distancing means you will catch Kung Flu and DIE! Fearmonger LLC was able to turn a serious but manageable health crisis into a total catastrophe. Hope they feel their ratings boost was worth it. I can hardly wait for the next narrative they will trumpet into an existential crisis.
” They don’t come here. ”
Apparently they dont come anywhere since you and your team cant find them anywhere else either. (Just so you know, when they do find one eventually, I will be sort of happy for you. I can stop thinking of you as delusional, just wrong. But once they do, please go back and find those fraud committing voters. I am sure they must exist too. After that the unicorns. I really want unicorns.)
Steve
“Fear monger LLCâ€
High on emotions, believing the worst things about each other.
Sensational news, nefarious groups plotting evil against us. An aspiring autocrat scheming in the White House. Secret Racist groups, offhand comments reveal deeply held hatred, You People? Fears of strangers spreading disease that cannot be detected till too late. Real? Of course it is, read it on three different Facebook pages. Even worded the same.
If I use just a little imagination I can begin to see the outlines of a full on barrage of disruptive propaganda.
This could all just be noise, but the effect it’s having on our populations is starting to look like deliberate causation.
‘This could all just be noise, but the effect it’s having on our populations is starting to look like deliberate causation.’
It’s deliberate causation. Period. Partly because it sells, but partly because they aided and abetted a still ongoing coup d’etat and the only way they feel they can win and thus escape justice is for the coup to succeed. And we’re still in the first week in June. Now the campaign is ‘better get OMB out or we’ll riot some more!’
Steve, no need for a scorching caustic reply, you wouldn’t believe there was a coup going on if Pelosi marched into the White House with a machete and came out holding Trump’s bloody head. You have your beliefs and I have mine, I think mine are right.
That old adage, “the squeaky wheel gets all the grease,†seems to be at work in today’s political theater. So much of the last 3 years has been fueled by rumors, unprecedented opposition from the party out of power, misinformation, media aspersions, emphasis on bad news while ignoring any upticks of good. It’s no wonder that the “good†has been completely squeezed out of the public’s consciousness, replaced by the tyranny of protracted guilt, fear, and helplessness.
Unwarranted investigations initiated by corrupted intelligence agencies, curried under the previous administration, led the parade of downers we’ve had foisted on us 24/7. We now have seemingly reached the pinnacle of insanity, with a never-ending pandemic paralyzing people and their livelihoods, followed by uncontrollable street violence, coupled with increasing calls to defund police departments. It appears those yearning for bedlam, demanding a dismantling of traditions and values are gaining ground over more sensible approaches to rectify past wrongs. However, with the push for far looser voting standards, virtue-signaling appeasement by politicians directed at a constituency making the loudest noise, it feels more and more like the inmates are in the process of taking over the country.
‘This could all just be noise, but the effect it’s having on our populations is starting to look like deliberate causation.’
I actually had foreign enemies in mind, but domestic plays a part.
Social media has become a military tactic we still don’t know how to defend against. We’re being manipulated into turning against ourselves.
What I am worried is the stock market is going up not because it is seeing an economic recovery — but that the Fed has printed too much money.
If that is correct….
People might want to consider what will happen if China, Japan, and South Korea don’t want to buy declining dollars.
We’re being manipulated into turning against ourselves.
Identity politics has been propagated by the Democrat party for years now, encompassing race, gender, and class. BLM, funded by Soros, having a high profile in today’s rioting, and supported by the Dems deriding any notion that all lives matter. Somehow the extreme reverse racism cascading over society is met with obliviousness by the left. In their universe the only person who can be considered and called a racist is someone with white skin.
Following the highly publicized George Floyd death, the left has been able to create yet another talking point – “institutionalized racism†is a battle cry heard everywhere now. Never mind that even though blacks comprise only 13% of this country’s population they are the fastest growing demographic entering the middle class, have become major sports figures, Hollywood celebrities, dominate commercials and the music business, making great strides almost everywhere one looks, including politics and occupying the WH for 8 years. IMO, much of the poverty still existing in the black community is more because of “Institutionalized generational welfare,†wretched schools, brought about by the lack of school choice (a dem policy), and affirmation action unfairness, rather than by excessive racism.
In the meantime 11 lives were lost during these riots – 4 of them black. Over 300 law enforcement officers were injured – some critically. George Floyd, though, has become a household name, a symbol of victimization, with 3 funerals being held in his name. As for those other 11 lives lost —- no one even remembers their names. Instead, they appear to be nothing more than collateral damage in highlighting a cause – one that is in the process of being exploited to highest degree.
“Steve, no need for a scorching caustic reply, you wouldn’t believe there was a coup going on if Pelosi marched into the White House with a machete and came out holding Trump’s bloody head. ”
Where’s the fun in that? Impeaching Clinton over sex was not a coup attempt, just normal politics. Investigating Obama for the same thing 8 times? Not a coup attempt. Investigating Trump? Coup.
Steve
Clinton’s impeachment involved 1) lying under oath; 2) obstruction of justice.
What was Obama investigated for 8 times?
The obstruction was because he lied, about sex. He, unlike Trump, actually had to testify. Trump just had his lawyer write “I dont remember” 110 times. Republicans have different rules.
BENGHAZI!
Steve