Check out Ian Bremmer’s predictions

Ian Bremmer of the Eurasia Group and The National Interest has a very interesting set of predictions for 2006 which I commend to your attention (hat tip: praktike). His predicted problem areas for 2006 are, in descending order:

1. Iran’s brinksmanship on its nuclear development (he handicaps the likelihood of an attack on Iran at 3:2).
2. Political tensions in China.
3. The rise of the Left in Latin America.
4. Political assertiveness of the Kurds in Iraq.
5. The threat of avian flu.
6. Political change in Nigeria.
7. Terrorist attack.

He also lists areas that are typically sources of tension and explains why he doesn’t think they will be in 2006. Go to the link for the details. Also check praktike’s post for some interesting observations on the potential for an alliance of necessity between the small Gulf states and Israel.

A common thread among several of his predictions is, of course, oil. That’s a connecting link for Iran, China, Latin America, the Kurds in Iraq, and Nigeria. And, of course, oil revenues provide some of the financing for terrorism. But there’s also an interesting link between Iran, the Kurds in Iraq, and praktike’s observations about Middle Eastern alliances.

It may have escaped your attention but the Israelis appear to be developing a relationship with the Kurds. Re-asserting might be a better choice of words. Here’s an article from The Guardian from last month:

Israeli firms are carrying out military training and commercial activities in Kurdish areas of north Iraq, according to reports in an Israeli newspaper. Yedioth Ahronoth reported yesterday that dozens of former members of Israel’s elite and covert forces were training Kurdish fighters in anti-terrorism techniques.

Other companies, the newspaper said, were involved in telecommunications and infrastructure projects such as the building of an airport at Irbil.

Iraq and Israel are still officially at war, though since the 1960s Israel and the Iraqi Kurds have had a relationship. A spokesman for the Israeli foreign ministry said his country had no relationship with the new Iraq and it remained “at war”.

The article follows detailed reports in the New Yorker last year saying that Israel had become heavily involved with the Kurds from 2003. It suggested Israel had a strategic interest in supporting Kurdish forces, as a counterweight to Sunni and Shia groups in Iraq. Involvement in the region also gave Israel better access to intelligence from Syria and Iran, particularly Iran’s nuclear programme.

Israel supported Kurdish rebels against the Ba’ath regime in Baghdad until 1975. The Kurds, who are Muslim, have never been as anti-Israeli as many Muslims in other countries. They have felt persecuted by Sunnis and have resented Yasser Arafat’s support for Saddam Hussein.

A spokesman for the Kurdistan regional government said: “It is possible that people with Israeli passports visit. Many Jews from Kurdistan resettled in Israel. We do not discriminate against any nationality that wants to … work in Kurdistan, but there are no official links.”

Israel cannot officially admit its involvement in the regime because it might encourage extremist groups, such as al-Qaida in Iraq. But Israelis are regularly seen in the Kurdish towns of northern Iraq, working as security guards and trainers. It is not clear whether they work for international security firms or are doing independent work.

Israelis representing private firms were seen looking for opportunities at a recent trade fair in Irbil. Yesterday’s report also stated that Israeli companies had set up a base in a remote area of Kurdistan, using it for weapons and anti-terrorism training and bringing in “dozens of motorcycles, sniffer dogs, Kalashnikov-upgrading devices, flak jackets, uniforms and helmets, all Israeli-made”. It claims Israelis pose as agricultural and engineering experts.

Development and security projects in Kurdistan are undertaken by several countries, including Turkey, the US, Iran, Britain and Germany. Israel’s main ally in the region is Turkey, which is concerned that the Kurds might declare independence from Iraq. Turkey, like Syria and Iran, has a substantial Kurdish minority within its population.

Here’s a link to Seymour Hersh’s article mentioned above. Hersh writes:

Israeli intelligence and military operatives are now quietly at work in Kurdistan, providing training for Kurdish commando units and, most important in Israel’s view, running covert operations inside Kurdish areas of Iran and Syria. Israel feels particularly threatened by Iran, whose position in the region has been strengthened by the war. The Israeli operatives include members of the Mossad, Israel’s clandestine foreign-intelligence service, who work undercover in Kurdistan as businessmen and, in some cases, do not carry Israeli passports.

Asked to comment, Mark Regev, the spokesman for the Israeli Embassy in Washington, said, “The story is simply untrue and the relevant governments know it’s untrue.” Kurdish officials declined to comment, as did a spokesman for the State Department.

However, a senior C.I.A. official acknowledged in an interview last week that the Israelis were indeed operating in Kurdistan. He told me that the Israelis felt that they had little choice: “They think they have to be there.” Asked whether the Israelis had sought approval from Washington, the official laughed and said, “Do you know anybody who can tell the Israelis what to do? They’re always going to do what is in their best interest.” The C.I.A. official added that the Israeli presence was widely known in the American intelligence community.

Kurdish blogger Kardox confirms that there’s something going on:

Well, I confirm that there are CIA and Israelis in Hawler. The CIA agents are located at a hotel (hired by a cover up Kurdish company registered to KDP) and the Israelis are located in Ankawa and have an area about 20 000 meter sq. And you don’t want to pass any of these buildings because the guards are always on alert. That means they have their guns insecure and ready to shoot anyone they think might be a danger to them. They look straight into your eyes when you pass by.

I hope the Jewish and the Kurdish people join in many ways. I would prefer a Jewish company rather than an Arabic or Turkish based on my political view. Who cares! Whats the big deal anyway? The Kurds are afriad of the terrorists and the Jews are afriad of the Turkish army.
I love the Jewish people and I think we have alot to learn from them. Look at them, we have to have them as our role model for statebuilding, using our knowlgde power and economic benfits to gain more power in politics hence creating a free Kurdistan. Only if I was the president.

It seems to me that the Israelis and the Kurds are natural allies. Both are embattled by their neighbors, the Israelis mostly by Arabs, the Kurds by Arabs, Turks, and Iranians. And then there’s “the enemy of my enemy is my friend”. There are sizeable Kurdish populations in Turkey, Iran, Iraq, and Syria. And an active military relationship between Israel and the Kurds certainly expands Israel’s options in dealing with what appears to be a growing Iranian threat.