Check Your Assumptions

At the New York Times Mark Fitzpatrick presents a simulator of war with North Korea. Try it out. The results aren’t pretty.

I do not advocate war with North Korea. I advocate what has been called “strategic patience”—essentially ignoring them. However, I think the scenarios presented by Mr. Fitzpatrick depend very strongly on one’s assumptions and, unfortunately, Mr. Fitzpatrick does not present his. I can only assume he makes the following:

1. North Korea has the ability to strike the U. S. mainland with a nuclear weapon.
2. China will spring to North Korea’s defense regardless of the circumstances.

My assumptions are quite different. I assume

1. North Korea does not have the ability to strike the U. S. mainland with a nuclear weapon. There are as many opinions on this as there are analysts. IMO North Korea might be able to accomplish the feat with a single weapon and we might be able to defeat it. Also, keep in mind that launch capability and strike capability are not the same thing.
2. If the North Koreans engage in a first strike, they’re on their own. That’s what the Chinese leadership has said and I believe them.

And here are my alternative scenarios.

Scenario 1

We engage in a first strike against North Korea using conventional weapons. The North Koreans respond with everything in their arsenal. The Chinese respond to our attack in North Korea’s defense. It goes nuclear almost immediately. This is the doomsday scenario. Millions of Americans, North Koreans, South Koreans, Japanese, Chinese, and who knows who else dead, probably several hundred million people in all.

Scenario 2

North Korea lobs a nuclear missile at U. S. forces. We respond with a decapitating nuclear strike against North Korea, 50-100 nuclear weapons in all. The conflict is over in less than an hour. Hundreds of thousands of Americans and South Koreans dead. Tens of millions of North Koreans dead.

Scenario 3

The U. S. engages in a decapitating nuclear first strike against North Korea and China, under the assumption that if we attack North Korea China will respond. Hundreds of nuclear weapons are used. North Korea is completely destroyed; China is able to mount some sort of counter-attack. Hundreds of millions of Chinese, North Koreans, South Koreans, Japanese, and Americans are killed.

I think that Scenario 2 is the only one that is at all likely and that’s assuming that the North Koreans make very bad assumptions of their own. Any of those sound appealing or even likely to you? Me, neither.