I wanted to address something that has been claimed from time to time. I have heard people saying that the reason there was no major international conflict involving the U. S. during Trump’s term of office was that he was deterring Russia, Iran, China, etc. I think that’s true but, as the “fact-checkers” put it, it needs context.
I don’t think they were deterred for the reasons usually given but because he was an unknown quantity. They didn’t know what the heck he would do. There are positives and negatives to that. “Strategic ambiguity” is a time-hallowed diplomatic posture. Shooting from the hip, on the other hand, is risky.
Shooting from the hip? Evidence? Mind reading skill we are unaware of?
You describe Trump negatively as transactional. But as someone who has been negotiating contracts for 30 years I find “strategic ambiguity” as an art. Shoot from the hip sounds like partisan drivel. Who assesses that? Strategy is an overarching concept. But it is comprised of a series of tactical moves and situational transactions. What is your beef?
Let’s get empirical. Did, or did we not, get more entangled in more foreign engagements with Trump. And let’s not even go to the hysterical “he’s going to start WWIII”. Pure BS. Obama and Biden own that risk. Period. Talk about transactional : Obama needs a signature foreign policy win for his legacy. So let’s suck Irans unit on a bogus nuclear deal. As transactional as it gets. Biden wants to piggyback: suck Irans unit.
How’s that working out?
I don’t see much evidence Trump would “shoot” from the hip, and make rash decisions on foreign policy. Instead what critics seem most upset about was his opaque decision matrix (as noted here, the matrix of factors that lead to decisions are a complete blackbox) and his coarse rhetoric, which he could use on anyone, including “allies”. Somehow the Europeans and Canadians really hated Trump’s uncouth style.
Like consider three different “signature” policies; tariffs on Chinese goods, the Abraham accords, Afghanistan. Despite all the drama, the tariffs took about two years to implement in phases, went through all the regulatory process, and stayed in place during Biden’s term. The Abraham accords wasn’t shooting from the hip, it was back channel diplomacy for most of Trump’s term, and organized despite an Iranian attack on Saudi refinaries where Trump decided to not retaliate; and the assassination of Soliemaini. On Afghanistan, despite all of Trump’s rhetoric, he reduced but didn’t withdraw all troops. None of those were shoot from the hip, although his critics basically melted down multiple times during his term thinking WWIII was about to be triggered.
Deterrence? Russia, China, and Iran were doing all they could to avoid getting drawn into war by the the incessant provocations of the US neocons. Even the initial Russian SMO IN 2022 was an attempt to implement the Minsk accords, and it worked until the US/UK intervened to block the ceasefire. The war then ensued.
The fantasy that Trump or any President controls foreign policy was proven false when Bolton and Pompeo publicly vetoed Trump’s agreement with Kim to do a stepwise nuclear disarmament of NK, trading sanctions for facility shutdowns and weapon destructions.
It should be obvious that the US is the Evil Empire, and that it is the main source and instigator of conflicts everywhere. Russia, China and other countries are trying to deter us.
There is also the issue of whom the neocons serve, and they are clearly Israeli agents. The situation in the Middle East today, on the verge of war, is the result of US/Israei aggression.
I see you don’t like the colloquial expression “shoot from the hip”. How about “rely on his instincts”? Far from my needing to provide evidence that Mr. Trump “shoots from the hip” can you provide a single instance of his ever having ignored his instincts, somberly studied and reflected on an issue, called in experts for advice, and made a measured decision based on all of the available inputs?
I think that relying on his instincts is his style; he doesn’t do anything else.