As the anniversary of the attack on Pearl Harbor which led to the United States’s entry into World War II draws to a close, I wanted to mention something that I have been thinking about for some time because it’s directly relevant. In the United States although the normal state of affairs is stalemate political change can happen very quickly. That doesn’t happen because people organize movements and push for change but because other people stop pushing against the change that people have been pushing for all along.
In 1941 some Americans had been pushing for the United States to be involved in fighting Hitler’s advance since 1938. Other Americans had opposed that, both on the left and the right. In June 1941 opposition from the left evaporated when Hitler invaded the Soviet Union and then in December opposition from the right ended when the Japanese bombed Pearl Harbor. The U. S. then entered World War II without material opposition.
Today there are a number of significant political issues that are at a standstill not because no one is calling for action but because there are people calling for opposing actions.
My message here is that can change overnight if something happens to cause one faction or another to stop pressing their cause. What sort of event could have that effect? I don’t know. As Niels Bohr put it prediction is hard, especially about the future.
A cautionary observation; issue(s) can explode beyond paralysis to violent disagreement.
An example is the Civil War. Lucky for this country it’s about the only example where this has happened.