At the Wall Street Journal James Taranto provides a litany of the bad polling news for the Clinton campaign:
There’s more bad polling news for Mrs. Clinton. A new Quinnipiac swing-state survey finds Trump leading in Florida (42% to 39%) and Pennsylvania (43% to 41%) and tied with Mrs. Clinton in Ohio (41%). Trump does better when Johnson and Stein are included in the question, leading by five points in Florida, six in Pennsylvania and one in Ohio. Other findings:
Voters [in the three states] still say [Mrs.] Clinton is more intelligent than Trump and that she is better prepared to be president. But Clinton has lost her wide lead over Trump for having “higher moral standards.†And Trump widens his lead over Clinton for being more honest and trustworthy.
The Washington Examiner reports a Monmouth poll finds Trump leading Mrs. Clinton 42% to 40% in Iowa, a state Democrats have carried in six of the past seven elections (George W. Bush won in 2004).
Nationwide polls also are trending Trumpward. NBC News/Survey Monkey has Mrs. Clinton’s lead at three points, 47% to 44% narrowing to two points (40% to 38%) in a four-way race. McClatchy gives Mrs. Clinton a 42% to 39% lead, though (in contrast to the other polls) it widens to five points (40% to 35%) in a four-way race.
Note how many of these polling results show the return of our old friend, Marge Genovera. It’s too close to call.
I have been saying all along that this election will hinge on turnout. Will Bernie Sanders’s tepid endorsement encourage his supporters enough to turn out for Sec. Clinton? Will Sec. Clinton’s promises of federal largesse be enough to move them?
As I’ve also been saying all along the polls will be more meaningful after the conventions and the states to watch will be Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, and Virginia. For Sec. Clinton to prevail she needs to hold all of the states that President Obama carried in 2012. For Donald Trump to win he needs to turn some of those states his way.
That, of course, has been the issue all along. Inordinately crude vehicle of pent up dismay – but a perceived change agent – vs a convictionless scofflaw offering flavor of the day banality that shrieks “more-of-the-same.”
I suspect she in no way can be a change agent. Rather, just the party choice and, for those swayed by these things, a woman. The real question, as I see it, is can he convince people that he will surround himself appropriately while breaking some eggs. It’s not a policy wonk election.
Using Nate Silver’s state predictions, these are the states most likely to switch from Obama (2012) to Trump (2016):
Ohio
Florida
Iowa
New Hampshire
Nevada
Which curiously gets you to exactly 269 electoral votes and the House choosing the next President. On the one hand, the tie-scenario seems to have been the most plausible Republican victory scenario last election, so I wonder if Silver’s model’s adjustments for the historic partisanship in given states is accurate. Also, he appears to undervalue third-party numbers early since they historically decline, but not clear when he finds third-party results to be predictive, or what he is doing with fourth-party.
But in any event, its entertaining that the most likely scenario for Trump to win is through the House, where the Republicans might (or might not) select him.
When running against a racist carnival barker, sure. It might be closer than expected, but certainly doable.
The electorate might want a change, but they don’t want Donald Trump. I expect Clinton will be a one term president though, unless the Republicans score another own-goal by nominating an unacceptable candidate.
Conspicuous by its absence from the list, PD, is the elusive Pennsylvania.
Not sure this is a “Change” election such as FDR’s first election. On one hand, we get occasionally Obama’s third term, on the other we have whatever crosses his mind playing his cards close to his chest whilst the gripping hand holds something that it wants to wipe off.
I still think this is Clinton’s election to lose, her machine is quite good at the art of spin while Trump is a one man band. However, a disastrous convention, and other events could tip things.