The fires continue to burn in Los Angeles. At this point the number of acres that have burned is 55,000 and nearly 16,000 structures have been destroyed. The editors of the Wall Street Journal, less delicate in their sensibilities than I, urge that some “sensible strings” be attached to the aid given by the federal government to California:
President Trump visits California on Friday to survey the wildfire damage, and no doubt he’ll hear requests for federal aid. A relevant question is whether this aid should be conditioned on policies that will reduce future damage.
Democrats want a blank check, and they’re comparing the fires to hurricanes. The fires are horrific and the damage in property and lives enormous. But the fire damage is worse than it would have been if not for the policy mistakes in Los Angeles and Sacramento on water and forest management.
Washington has in the past tied aid to financially troubled cities and Puerto Rico. New York state established a financial control board to impose fiscal reforms on a city that couldn’t muster the political nerve to make changes without outside pressure. The California fires are both a natural and man-made disaster, but California’s political leaders seem incapable of reform. What then should Congress and the Trump Administration ask for?
I continue to think it is ghoulish to dwell on this while the fires are still raging, as they are. I want to limit my remarks to one point.
Wildfires are part of Southern California’s natural ecology. So are mudslides. They cannot be prevented only mitigated and coped with. It may be that global climate change has exacerbated that problem. I don’t know. Certainly local climate change is a contributing factor. But so are poor land management and inadequate infrastructure.
I certainly hope that the federal government can, in a way consistent with sympathy for the suffering of the poor people in Southern California who’ve lost everything, gently nudge California in the direction of practices better than those that prevailed on January 1, 2025.
When St. Louis experience the fire of 1849, it caused the city to ban wood frame houses, required buildings to be built of brick or stone, and motivated them to improve the sewer and water systems. After Chicago went through the fire of 1871 Chicagoans received aid from St. Louis, New York, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Buffalo, and as far away as London and Scotland rather than the federal government. The experts who advised Chicago on new building codes were insurance companies rather than federal bureaucrats. It, too, updated its building codes. I expect something of the sort will happen in Los Angeles and I hope that the city is encouraged in that direction by state and federal governments.
Have no fear, your new president has figured it out.
““He claimed Los Angeles limits residents to just 38 gallons of water a day, and referred to some mythical “valve” that could bring limitless water to L.A., but that officials instead diverted to the ocean.
“They have a valve, think of a sink but multiply it by many thousands of times the size of it, it’s massive. And you turn it back toward Los Angeles. Why aren’t they doing it? They either have a death wish, they’re stupid or there’s something else going on that we don’t understand,” Trump said.”
https://abc7.com/post/president-donald-trump-goes-off-rails-when-asked-california-wildfires-claims-officials-divert-water-oceans/15823953/
So come on California, just turn that valve and everything will be OK.
OK, setting aside what our stable genius said, I think that people vastly underestimate the power of nature to overcome what we build. In particular I dont see how we stop massive fires from spreading in a drought and with winds at 80 mph when you build on top of a hill. The fires are gong to spread quickly and you wont be able to pump enough water uphill unless you are going to spend more money than it is worth to build there. My thought is that you either not let people build there or if you do just accept that every 50-100 years they will all burn down. They have gone well over 100 yeas without a fire this size so its clear past efforts worked for less extreme conditions.
Steve
Also, in case you missed it, the Construction Physics guy has a piece on insurance costs.
https://www.construction-physics.com/p/why-is-homeowners-insurance-getting?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=104058&post_id=155462314&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=3o9&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
Steve
I think that’s the bottom line. Southern California is enormously overbuilt.
I agree with the thrust of your comment, Steve. Perhaps a technicality, but I think worthy to note. Talking heads have wasted no time blaming global warming. And there are some hysterical folks over at OTB.
But right on que came the observation that there have been 3 fires greater in size than the current ones (at least as of a few days ago) since 1900.
On a separate note, the extremely cold weather reaching all the way to FL makes clear that an ice age is quickly coming, and we best prepare. We can’t drill fast enough.
Read the Construction guy. He is a real engineer with a good team behind him whose focus is pro-growth. He comes to the conclusion that there are multiple factors for why insurance costs are rising, but climate change appears to be one fo them.
I assume the part you agree with is the giant valve part? Thank God Trump let us know about that. Truly, only he can save our country. Someone ought to propose that he should be allowed to serve a 3rd term.
Steve
I was born and raised in Santa Monica, CA, and have my primary residence still here. We were close enough to the Palisades fire to be in a volunteer evacuation zone, and our to-go bags were just unpacked last night. The problems Trump brought up, in how we have ignored fire prevention remedies, are well known by native Californians.
For instance lumber companies used to work with the state govt in clearing out forests and then replanting trees. Environmentalists have stopped such practices. Water has always been an issue in the more arid southern CA region, where dried out chaparral creates the perfect kindling for wild fires. However, instead of storing water during years of heavy snowpacks, we let most of it run into the ocean. Pumps, meant to push some of this escaping water into the Central Valley “bread basket,” don’t run because of environmentalists wanting to save the Delta Smelt from being killed – even though no one has seen a delta smelt in over a decade. This pump is the “valve” Trump referred to. In the meantime Farmer’s are constantly in need of more water – digging their own wells etc., rotating crops, or just letting trees die.
The Palisades fire, though, was plagued by government ineptness and mistakes….not climate change. Local reservoirs were either empty (for over a year for a minor repair of a cover – 117 million gallons worth), or not filled up. It was reported that 1 in 10 fire hydrants had no water. Residents were emptying vases of water, taking buckets out to the curb to capture water run-off to put out embers spreading fire to their own homes. 100 fire trucks were off line – some say for repairs, others because of Gov. Newsom’s restrictions on diesel trucks. Fire fighters were not on standby because of budget cuts by Mayor Bass not wanting any overtime costs.
Consequently, it took longer for fire fighters to respond to the initial call when the fire was small and manageable- anywhere from 20-40 minutes during 80 mph winds. The winds hampered water drops by planes, but some say Biden being in town to visit his grand daughter also restricted air traffic. This was a disaster that could have been minimized with governance that invested in fire prevention programs, rather than social justice or sanctuary state priorities.
Don’t get your shorts in a bind AI will save the day….
@jan
I am glad you are OK. I thought about you, but I thought you lived north of LA. It has been over 30 years since I was in Santa Monica, but it was a great place. There was a good used bookstore in a pedestrian mall my buddy and I would visit, but the homeless were a problem, even back then.
(If you want to have fun, ask the panhandlers for money before they can ask you, and make the reason something like, “I need to pay my property taxes on my house.” To say they are not expecting that is an understatement.)
I know what it is like to have everything you own sitting on the curb for trash pick-up, but I cannot imagine what it must be like to have nothing but ashes left. Regardless of the “build back better” pablum, those areas will never be the same.
I do know what it is like to elect idiots. The only reason my house flooded is because the parish (county) president evacuated the pump operators, and there was nobody to turn on the pumps.
If you have not done so, you may want to identify things (photos, momentos, etc.) that are must haves. In addition to a container with important documents, we have several that remain pre-packed for an evacuation.
Otherwise, I hope all is well with you and your family. Take care and stay safe.
@steve
Insurance costs are increasinging because re-insurance costs are increasing, and re-insurers cover large regions and multiple disasters. The hurricanes in Florida affect my insurance cost, and the California fires will, as well.
Furthermore, investors fund the re-insurance market, and if better investment opportunities exist, ROI will need to increase to draw them back. This will cause costs to rise, and rising interest rates probably do not help, either. NOTE: “Better investment opportunities” are what the investors consider better.
My PE Investor friend could probably explain better, but he is a Trump-bot. The most we will get out of him is “MAGA good, MAGA GOOD” before he forces his barefoot wife into the kitchen after impregnating her.
@Drew
I still have snow on my front lawn – f*cking snow. If we do not stop the global warming, it will soon be snowing year round.
I’m waiting for the after-action reports, but one thing that is obviously wrong is the way insurance is managed in CA. An elected official controls rates, so of course, that official is incentivized to keep rates low to please constituents—much lower than the actuarial risk.
I thought you lived north of LA.
It’s good to see you still posting here, Tasty. You’re one of the reasons I revisit from time to time. While my “primary” residence is in my hometown of Santa Monica, we’ve had a “retreat home” in rural Sonoma County, in northern CA for many years – actually since college. My husband and I like small town life better, but making a living and family was always in S CA.
Considering evacuating our home during the Palisades Fire was the first serious time we’ve had to contemplate that. It’s definitely a wake-up call in evaluating what is important and can be handily packed, versus what is not. I am better equipped now, at least mentally, to make quicker, more rational decisions than before. In the meantime the Los Angeles area still has not been able to completely process the wide swath of devastation that has claimed so many areas of beauty, iconic structures, schools, churches that are no longer there. This fire will be difficult to put behind us.
Thanks for your kind words and concerns…..
Drew: On a separate note, the extremely cold weather reaching all the way to FL makes clear that an ice age is quickly coming, and we best prepare. We can’t drill fast enough.
TastyBits: If we do not stop the global warming, it will soon be snowing year round.
Last year was the warmest global temperature anomaly on record. Currently, despite the frigid temperatures in much of the United States, most of the globe is still anomalously warm.
What has happened is that the polar vortex has weakened, allowing Arctic air to move over North America. But that also means that much of the Arctic is anomalously warm. In particular, the Arctic Ocean north of Alaska, Greenland, and especially Siberia are anomalously warm, as warmer air replaces the cold air that has moved over North America.
Because weather is so inherently chaotic, it isn’t easy to determine the relationship between weather events and global warming. We know (with high confidence) that the Earth’s surface is warming due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, but how this excess heat will affect regional climate and weather patterns is less well known.
It is likely (but not yet certain) that global warming will cause more extremes in weather patterns; for instance, the American southwest could see longer droughts punctuated with heavier rains. The current weakening of the polar vortex is likely (but not yet certain) due to global warming, which causes the vortex to become wobbly, allowing blasts of cold air to escape south, leaving the Arctic anomalously warm.
The effect of global warming on regional climate and weather patterns is a matter of intense scientific study. But we know (with high confidence) that the vast changes to Earth’s climate which have occurred in the past were often due to relatively small changes in mean surface temperature.
(ETA: based on data from 1/21/2025)
@Zachriel
You are human, and you are comfortable with a human timescale. The Earth is not, and a few hundred or thousand years is less than a rounding error.
If you believe that humans can alter the Earth, I am not going to argue. In a few millions years, this topic will be long forgotten, and in a few billion years the sun’s expansion will make it moot.
I wish you the best, but the Earth does not care.
TastyBits: If you believe that humans can alter the Earth, I am not going to argue.
Clearly humans can and have had significant impacts on the surface of the Earth, removing entire forests and ecosystems, driving species to extinction, and altering the greenhouse gas content of the atmosphere. It has to do with exponential growth; for instance, the Great Oxidation Event was due to the lowly cyanobacteria.
TastyBits: In a few millions years, this topic will be long forgotten, and in a few billion years the sun’s expansion will make it moot.
Million years? Optimist! In any case, we’re rather fond of the humans. Call it a peccadillo if you like.
So many factors at play, the best we can do is adjust. We can and have raised cities, (like Chicago). We can and have relocated.
But for insurance companies, the issue is unpredictability , actuarial tables rely upon past experience predicting future averages.
They want out of the property insurance market if they can’t find re-insurance coverage.
Just a reminder that the continental YS accounts for about 2% of global surface area.
Steve
Okay, I’ll bite. What’s that relevant to?
One of my best friends has a PhD in meteorology. He explained the cold snap in terms of climate change to me this way:
“Essentially, the jet stream acts like a barrier that keeps cold air near the poles and warm air near the tropics. The strength of this barrier depends on the temperature difference between those two areas. Climate change is reducing that temperature difference because the polar areas are warming faster than the tropics. In essence, climate change is weakening the barrier, allowing cold air to move south and warm air to move north more frequently. So climate change can’t be said to directly cause this, but it does increase the frequency of conditions that allow it to happen.”
Dave- A few cold days in even half of the country means that you are talking about only 1% of the globe. If you think global cooling is happening or imminent it ought to be showing up more widely.
Steve