Brave New World

Carl Thayer’s assessment at The Diplomat of the situation in the South China Sea is somewhat disquieting. After detailing the situation with respect to China and the Philippines and China and Vietnam, he concludes:

Major developments in the South China Sea in 2024 do not augur well for 2025. China will remain committed to asserting its sovereignty over land features and adjacent waters that lie within the Philippines’ Exclusive Economic Zone, and the PLAN and CCG continue to expand in numbers. China will continue to pressure the Philippines to convince it that resistance is futile because the Trump administration will be a fickle ally and the Philippines lacks the capacity to stand alone against China.

The Philippines will have to weather the uncertainty of the U.S. commitment to the Mutual Defense Treaty now that President Donald Trump has taken office. Pete Hegseth, Trump’s secretary of defense, admitted he didn’t know which countries were members of ASEAN when questioned at his confirmation hearing. When Hegseth tried to make up for this lapse by noting he knew the U.S. had alliances with Japan, South Korea and Australia, he failed to mention the Philippines. Also, Marcos was not invited to Trump’s inauguration (while Xi Jinping was, although he sent China’s vice president in his stead).

Vietnam will continue to build infrastructure on its land features in the Spratly islands. It is unclear, however, if Vietnam will construct more air strips and militarize these features. This could provoke China into ending its “softly, softly” approach.

Malaysia has replaced Laos as ASEAN chair and this has given rise to guarded optimism that progress can be made on the South China Sea Code of Conduct in 2025. China can be expected to press for a quick conclusion to negotiations on the Code of Conduct with ASEAN members as one means of undermining a U.S. security role in maritime affairs.

I think this is a situation to which the United States needs to accustom itself. It is not a hegemon. It does not possess overwhelming force. Other countries including China do, in fact, have interests and will pursue them.

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