The prediction markets have wasted no time in handicapping who will be elected as the next pope of the Roman Catholic Church. Alexander Osipovich reports at the Wall Street Journal:
At Polymarket, a popular crypto-based platform, users have traded more than $13 million worth of contracts that will pay off if their holders make accurate predictions about the next leader of the world’s 1.4 billion Catholics.
Meanwhile, around $4 million worth of similar contracts have changed hands at Kalshi, a rival prediction market. Kalshi—which unlike Polymarket is open to Americans—began taking wagers on the next pontiff just hours after the death of Pope Francis on April 21.
Who are the favored picks?
The current front-runner is Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Vatican’s secretary of state, with a 27% chance of winning as of Friday afternoon, according to Polymarket. In second place is Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, a Filipino dubbed the “Asian Francis,” at 21%.
Another favorite among some bettors is Cardinal Peter Turkson of Ghana. The African cardinal’s chances on Polymarket mysteriously surged from 7% last week to 14% on Friday, putting him in third place. The same three cardinals are top contenders at Kalshi, as well as at U.K. bookmakers that allow betting on the next pope.
Although I think it would be great if an African or East Asian bishop were elected pope, I suspect with the challenges the Church is facing in Europe these days Cardinal Parolin is likely to be elected. My pick would be Wilton Gregory. He’s retired now but he was formerly the archbishop of Washington, DC.
One last wisecrack. Our ABC affiliate is sending Liz Nagy to cover the conclave. Her last assignment was Chicago animal control. More than a coincidence?
well, primates will be there ….