I was rather disappointed by James Holmes’s piece at The National Interest, “China and Taiwan Could Be Headed Towards a Showdown. What Should America Do?”. Like many such articles these days it asks a question it refrains from answering. Or perhaps it assumes the answer. Most of the article is devoted to what Taiwan should do to encourage the United States to defend it.
Unlike Mr. Holmes I’ll give a brief answer. Fools rush in, etc. The very first thing we should do is bolster our own domestic semiconductor production. Forty years ago we made nearly all of our own memories and all of the various chips used in the electronics on which we are so dependent right here in the United States. Now we make very few of them. A good start would be requiring domestic production of every chip in every piece of equipment purchased by the U. S. military. IMO it is unconscionable that we do not already do that.
The second thing we should do is butt out. Unless the Chinese should be so foolish as to use nuclear weapons. In the unlikely event that should happen, we should encourage the Russians to join us in eliminating the Chinese government as a threat to anyone.
For the sake of the world I hope Xi has read Sun Tzu. He seems to have. His object is to get Taiwan to succumb to mainland control without fighting or disrupting One Belt One Road. If the struggle turned hot much less nuclear, the supply chain would get majorly disrupted if not completely severed and then it would be a race to see who gets to line Xi up against a wall for damaging innumerable bank accounts.
In the 1972 Shanghai Communique, which Nixon signed, the US agreed that Taiwan was part of China. We hoped reunification would be peaceful and evolutionary. China (Mao) did not commit to that. However, it is unlikely that China would force reunification unless either Taiwan declared independence or we reneged on the Communique.
Back the late 50’s when Eisenhower warned China about Matsu and Quemoy, and 1960 when Kennedy and Nixon debated whether to defend them, it was clear that a defense the islands was impossible and one of Taiwan itself was problematic. Nowadays, China has military superiority out some several hundred miles from its shores, and the defense of Taiwan itself is impossible.
Control of Taiwan is ultimately and existential matter for China, as deeply so as the defense and retention of any of America’s States. China would readily go nuclear to maintain its perceived rights in Taiwan, but they would more likely bomb American military installations than Taiwan itself. They would not wish to wreck the prize.