Dexter Filkins has a lengthy profile of Mohammed bin Salman, Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, at The New Yorker. Mr. Filkins’s portrayal is somewhat less rosy than many of the portraits of MBS in the Western media but it doesn’t quite comport with my own views which can be summarized:
- Anybody who arrests his cousins and puts them in detention in a hotel until they transfer their wealth to him isn’t a liberal democrat. It is, however, one way of getting the rich to “pay their fair share”. It’s not one that’s open to the U. S.
- Ditto about waging a “wag the dog” war against Yemen.
- There is no place for most of the Saudi population in a KSA remodeled along the lines of the UAE.
- Don’t be misled by minor liberalizations. The farthest he will push the kingdom is to the middle of the 20th century which is none too far.
I think that he’s trying to weaken his opponents, religious or secular, and build a power base for himself. Be careful about thinking of him as a liberalizer.
Read the whole thing. It’s a good backgrounder.
He has to be made to look good so he can be portrayed as an ally. Lets certain people stay focused on Iran.
Steve
I thought it was a good article too. Here’s my observations.
(1) The article was the 2nd this weekend I read that included a gratuitous inclusion of the Mueller investigation (the other was on the alleged use of chemical weapons by Russia to kill an ex-spy in the UK). On the one hand I wouldn’t mind if Mueller investigate how Middle East countries influence American foreign policy; on the other hand if he actually tried, he probably end up investigating half of DC.
(2) A lot of former Obama administration officials still seem to be in denial that the Iran deal was only about Nuclear Weapons. Wishing it was a broader reconciliation deal doesn’t make it so. Certainly the Iranians, the other parties to the deal, and the Saudis don’t see the deal as these officials do.
(3) Some of the article has a vendetta quality to it. I doubt the Saudis would ever side with Netanyahu over the Palestinians, they might ignore the Palestinians, but that’s very different from taking the Israeli government’s side.
(4) The motivator that actually works for real reform in the long term is the belief that fossil fuel will be obsolete in a decade or two. Having to grow human capital instead of relying on natural resources requires different approaches to foreign and domestic policy. Sadly, as much as I wish technology, infrastructure would advance, it seems fossil fuels have more like 4/5 decades of life left.
I agree; but KSA’s position isn’t due to its possession of oil. It’s due to its position as the low-cost producer of high quality oil. That will come to an end much sooner.