While we’re thinking about the unthinkable, at the Observer Austin Bay has a more inclusive list of options in dealing with North Korea. His #4 is something I’ve been saying around here for a long time. Here’s his description of war with North Korea:
The U.S. and South Korea have exercised what they call a 4D strategy to “detect, defend, disrupt and destroy†North Korea’s missiles.
Weapons systems involved include various U.S. aircraft and a South Korean submarine with cruise missiles.
This is a bare sketch of some of the systems that would be employed in a “simultaneous strategic bombing strike†to knock out North Korean missiles, missile launchers, storage sites, nuclear and chemical weapons sites, command and control centers, communications systems and air-space defenses.
The U.S. and its allies in east Asia have the aircraft and missiles (cruise and ballistic) to deliver at least 2,000 (likely more) precision blockbuster-sized conventional weapons within a two to 10 minute time frame on North Korea’s critical targets. The April U.S. Tomahawk cruise missile attack on a Syrian Shayrat airbase provides an example.
The missiles were fired at a distance, but since they can “loiter,†the 59 missiles arrived near simultaneously. U.S. Air Force heavy bombers can drop smart bombs so that munitions dropped from different aircraft arrive near simultaneously.
A simultaneous strategic bombing strike seeks to surprise the enemy, destroy his strategic weapons systems and suppress his key defenses throughout the battle area.
That is asking a lot—perhaps too much.
Success depends on many things, but the first D—detect—is vital. Conducting a successful simultaneous strategic bombing strike requires very accurate, real-time intelligence. Allied ABMs must be ready to intercept any North Korean missiles that survive the attack.
That’s a sketch of the first 10 minutes. Over the next month subsequent strikes would occur, to make certain North Korea’s long-range missiles, chemical munitions, nuclear weapons stockpiles, missile manufacturing capabilities and nuclear weapons manufacturing capabilities are eliminated.
The U.S. and it allies must protect Seoul. North Korean artillery can bombard the northern reaches of South Korea’s capital. Military analysts debate the severity of the threat posed to Seoul by North Korean artillery deployed along the Demilitarized Zone. Some call it overrated. Perhaps, but best to suppress and destroy the artillery. North Korea’s tube and rocket artillery systems—even the ones in caves and bunkers—are vulnerable to weapons like the Massive Ordnance Air Blast (MOAB) bomb.
2,000 in two minutes sounds like a vision of hell to me.
When you operate only with best case scenarios you usually end up disappointed.
Steve
There are a lot of problems with this piece as well. An example:
“The U.S. and its allies in east Asia have the aircraft and missiles (cruise and ballistic) to deliver at least 2,000 (likely more) precision blockbuster-sized conventional weapons within a two to 10 minute time frame on North Korea’s critical targets.”
That is theoretically true. But such a coalition could not assemble in secret and then attack secretly. North Korea will see the punch coming and disperse their assets – and probably strike first. In other words the target list for North Korea today when there is no imminent threat of war will change dramatically once war appears likely – enemies never stay static and allow you time to wind up a blow like this.
It’s more stupid war optimism and Bay, at least, should know better.
First, a war with North Korea is also a war with China and Russia, just like the first Korean War. Neither China nor Russia will tolerate an American ally on the Yalu. You might also note that US naval and air supremacy did not prevent China defeating us the first time, and they won’t the next time, either.
Because of the terrain, a war on the Korean peninsula is necessarily an infantry war, and we would need to put in place at least 300,000 to 500,000 ground troops into South Korea in order to defend against the combined Chinese-North Korean forces, essentially all of our ground forces. There is no way to put those forces in place before they seize the whole peninsula and drive us out of East Asia.
Bay, like the other neocon war mongers and our deluded military, is besotted with “wonder weapons” and utterly contemptuous of our adversaries. Those delusions didn’t saveHitler and Nazi Germany, and they won’t help us either.
The only way to get rid of North Korea’s nukes and missiles is to buy them out. The price is guarantees to preserve the Kim dynasty, backed by Russia ans Chinese troops in the DMZ, and a Marshal Plan to develop the North. The alternative is millions of dead Koreans ans Japanese and the end of an American presence in the Western Pacific.
Then there’s no way to get rid of them. The Kim regime has demonstrated that it won’t stay bought.
Then millions must die, and America must be driven out of the Western Pacific. The Pax Americana is finished.
The Lower 48 are immune to invasion, but Alaska and Hawaii aren’t.
I think it’s time we had had a “Manhattan project” for the S D I. Historically, one weapons system has always been rendered ineffective by a new one. We are too good to be held hostage by a tin pot dictator, and South Korea or Japan should be too.