- Six simultaneous attacks took place in Paris yesterday.
- 128 people are dead and many more are wounded, some seriously. The attackers are all dead.
- A state of emergency has been declared and the borders have been closed.
- A national day of mourning has been declared.
- DAESH is being blamed for the attacks.
- A Syrian passport was found on the body of one of the attackers.
French President François Hollande has addressed the nation, vowing that France will be pitiless against “the barbarians”.
I want to take a poll. What will the French do in response to the attacks in Paris?
- Domestic crackdown against Middle Eastern refugees and other immigrants from the Middle East.
- Domestic crackdown against Muslims more generally, including some who are French citizens.
- Take an active role in fighting Islamist terrorists in Syria, on the side of the Syrian government.
- Take an active role in fighting Islamist terrorists in Syria and Iraq, siding with the Americans.
- Seek a Security Council resolution condemning DAESH for the attacks and, possibly, authorizing the use of force against DAESH.
- Nothing.
B. Increased domestic surveillance; and
D. If active role doesn’t necessarily mean boot-on-the-ground. Hollande had said a few weeks ago that French air strikes on ISIS were in self-defense as permitted by UN Charter. Western countries will remain adamant that long-term peace requires removal of Assad.
B, D & E. They can’t really do C.
Western countries will remain adamant that long-term peace requires removal of Assad.
Western countries will remain adamant that putting ISIS & al Qaeda in control is the only way to get ISIS and al Qaeda to stop killing people. Christ Almighty but our leaders are evil bastards.
I also expect the French to insist that while they shouldn’t take in more Muslim refugees, it will be the duty of Germany, Britain & the US to take in as many as possible, so that we to can experience the joys of Friday night massacres, too. Solidarity, bitchez.
During the Bush years, especially before the NYT leaked the various anti-terror programs, the French were one of the most reliable and best intelligence partner. They would allow their airports to be used as transfer points for CIA planes ferrying suspects to other countries for whatever crimes they had committed.
I also have seen the French Foreign Legion in action, and they make the New Orleans Deputies circa 1980’s look like Girl Scouts. This was not on French soil and not against French citizens.
It is my understanding that French intelligence agencies are excellent, and if correct, it is possible that they are just understaffed and overwhelmed. Europeans do not necessarily play by the same rules as Americans. They do not have the same rights.
One possibility would be re-engaging in Lebanon with or without UN support or authority. If the US wanted to get involved in the ME, this would be the best place, also.
B and E. France can’t sustain that much of an effort on their own. They will want UN (or NATO) help, meaning they will want us to help. France came to our aid after 9/11, not sure how much aid we will offer. However, it is an election year and the US people love wars. As to B, I think they start deporting the new arrivals for sure, as a minimum. Anything less means Le Pen or the equivalent takes over the government.
Query- I don’t follow France that closely. Are they really committed to booting Assad? The US is focused on that as part of our job is carrying our Israeli foreign policy preferences, but my sense is that the French care much less about Israeli concerns.
Steve
B, D, and E.