I planned to post on an op-ed in the New York Times on the prospect of a second American Civil War but James Joyner beat me to it in his response at Outside the Beltway. I materially agree with his conclusion:
Regardless, rhetoric aside, a repeat is simply not going to happen. There is no relatively neat line of demarcation between “Red America†and “Blue America†that would allow the formation of two contiguous countries and two armies.
That doesn’t, however, mean that there’s no danger of violence if our war of words continues to escalate. Americans have lost faith in our institutions. Democrats, for good reason, don’t see the Electoral College as legitimate, having seen their candidate defeated twice in the span of 16 years despite garnering more votes. They also don’t see the Supreme Court as legitimate, largely because its majority is a direct result of minority rule (but, frankly, also because they simply dislike recent rulings). Republicans, meanwhile, seem not to see the votes of those who aren’t Republican as legitimate and therefore any means of suppressing or discounting them is justified.
If violence breaks out, though, it’ll be more like mass rioting than contending armies. And there will be no General Lee able to surrender.
although I think that we will see more than rioting. While I don’t think we will see pitched battles as occurred during the American Civil War I, I do think we’ll see rioting, skirmishes between small groups and the authorities or between small groups, terrorism, and civil disorder. I think we’re already seeing it. Don’t think in terms of Glory, Lincoln, or The Red Badge of Courage. Think Mad Max. As evidence I submit this:
CHICAGO — At least 35 people were shot, nine fatally, in Chicago shootings over the weekend.
Eight people were killed and 25 others were wounded – including a 5-year-old boy – in shootings over the weekend across Chicago.
or this:
CHICAGO (WLS) — Cellphone video showed the aftermath of a crash that police said killed a woman on the city’s Southwest Side.
It happened just after 1:30 a.m. Sunday. A 27-year-old man and a 19-year-old woman were speeding down Cicero Avenue near 64th Street, police said. That’s when the man changed lanes, hit the woman’s car and 40-year-old Shawman Meireis, who was standing on the sidewalk.
The victim died at the hospital. Police said the man behind the wheel was given two citations.
Hours after that, a chaotic confrontation was caught on video at South Canal Street and West Cermak Road in the Pilsen neighborhood. Police said they tried to respond to reports of more drifting and drag racing. Instead, they left with six squad vehicles pummeled by heavy objects.
Video shows people hitting a police SUV over and over again. Officers were then seen retreating. No officers were hurt.
Before, some people in that same group were involved in a street takeover at Madison and Morgan in the West Loop, police said. Video showed a vehicle dangerously drifting in that intersection.
both from ABC 7 Chicago. One of the things that struck me was the comments to James’s post. I think his commenters greatly misunderstand the present moment. To read their comments you would conclude that Republicans are vile, authoritarian bigots and that division in the country has been caused by Fox News. My retort would be that you could shutter every Fox outlet or magically cause every Illinois Republican to disappear and it wouldn’t solve one of Chicago’s problems. IMO they’re mistaking symptoms for causes.
The United States remains a center-right country while the leadership of both parties are significantly more extreme. Strict majoritarianism wouldn’t mean that more of what progressives want would be enacted into law. It means that more of what conservatives and moderates want would be enacted into law. According to Gallup progressives are outnumbered by both conservatives and moderates. Pew Research reports similar results. It’s only the undemocratic results produced by gerrymandering and Congress’s seniority system that enables progressives to get what they want.
I’m a Democrat but I want a Democratic Party that stands up for ordinary Americans rather than standing up for, as Ezra Klein put it, people who work for or contribute to Democratic campaigns.
It seems to me that contemplating a second civil war is silly, bordering on mindlessly stupid; its urban vs non-urban. Far too geographically distributed. That takes about 3 seconds to conclude.
As for looting, rioting, skirmishes etc etc the vast majority of the politically oriented kind occurred in 2020 and involved urban centers and the BLM and Antifa kooks inhabiting them. Two groups hardly populated by centrists or, Biden’s shameful propaganda about fascist MAGA types aside, MAGA types. The non-political criminal events are either gang/drug related, or characterized by those capitalizing on the current tolerance for lawlessness like car jackings or retail looting. Its predominantly urban, steve’s never ending effort to draw equivalence between, say, Crete and S Chicago or Cicero notwithstanding.
‘I’m a Democrat but I want a Democratic Party that stands up for ordinary Americans rather than standing up for, as Ezra Klein put it, people who work for or contribute to Democratic campaigns.’
We all would. But good luck. As an explicit strategy your party balkanized the country into all manner of grievance groups or political bribes for votes groups, especially public sector workers. I see nothing to suggest any change to that policy. Student loan debt forgiveness anyone?
There is a lot of violence in America, but even then the violence is much less than in most of our history, and very little of it is politically motivated. But given enough time and fervor, the keyboard zealots may start to have an effect.
You think the crime in Chicago is being caused by the political division in the country? Could you explain that, not seeing it. Of course Chicago is (was last time I looked) either just barely in or a bit below the top ten cities when it comes to violent crime. Much lower in property crime. Does Chicago have crime at higher rates of crime for the same reasons other cities have it?
” majority of the politically oriented kind occurred in 2020 and involved urban centers and the BLM and Antifa kooks inhabiting them.”
In reaction to the public torture and execution of someone. It didnt spring up de novo out of nothing and since then has largely gone away, unless you want to claim some guy shooting someone else because they got dissed is due to BLM. Historically, most fo ideologically driven killings have been from the right. As of late the death threats that have been piling up mostly come from the right with people like Alex Jones and their conspiracy theories, or all of the public health people having death threats and demonstrations at their homes. Now we have threats against the FBI.
Query- Was the DOJ and FBI getting death threats when they were investigating Clinton or Obama? Certainly dont remember that?
Steve
I’m don’t recall Alex Jones making death
threats. Now I do remember Schumer threatening Kavanaugh at the steps of the Supreme Court. Then there are dems giving phone #s and info on people they don’t like. want hassled and perhaps even killed – like recently MTG. How about all those people (dems) harassing the justices at their homes after the abortion ruling? Then you have the summer of riots, 35 people killed, 1500 police officers injured, 2 billion in damages (approved by Dem Kamala Harris) – much higher and more deadly than the J6 4-6 hour protest that is sending lots of good people to jail – the latter group referring to themselves as “patriots.â€
The FBI and DOj have no respect from the people these days. They are ideological driven, biased, unethical tools of the mostly democrat administrate state. Grass roots opposition is finally finding their voice and courage to oppose these entities impersonating the law, while they commit unlawful acts.
Steve always characterizes republicans as being more violent than dems. However, most of the violent uprisings, including during Trump’s own 2017
Inauguration, involve progressive leftists – burning police cars, vandalizing businesses, spitting on and attacking people they disagree with. Remember Lafayette Square and the church burning? Mainstream republicans have their own character flaws, including a milquetoast approach to conservative governance.
“I’m don’t recall Alex Jones making death
threats.”
Jones just lost a lawsuit over it. He claimed the Connecticutt school shootings were a hoax and IIRC put up the names and address of the families who were supposedly making false claims about their kids being shot. His fans beielved him and made death threats against those families, who had their children killed.
Steve