While we’re on the subject what do you think the incoming Trump Administration and Congress will do about immigration? My guess is that other than half-hearted attempts at building the wall that Mr. Trump promised back in 2016, not much.
I think the obvious measures like universal mandatory E-Verify will be unpalatable to too many Republicans and doing house-to-house sweeps will be a bridge too far, especially without the cooperation of local officials which will not be forthcoming.
I will go out on a limb and predict there will be some door to door type stuff, but only in blue states/cities just for theater. You wont see it in places where they support Trump and are dependent upon illegals for labor like in Texas and Florida.
Steve
My guess is that early on, there will be a lot of news of immigrants being deported. Trump and the ICE will focus on those with criminal records. I think there will be a real effort to deport these people. I think most of the others will be mostly left alone until their court dates. I think government funding for the NGO’s helping the migrants will be slashed. I think there will be some more wall construction take place.
I think Trump will target removal of those with criminal records. Stephen Miller, who will be the immigration advisor, previously called out these Biden policies, which I assume will be reversed:
“—Terminating Remain-in-Mexico
—Canceling Safe 3rds
—Ordering border-wide catch-and-release
—Freeing adult single crossers for first time in US history
—Releasing illegals from Mexico at scale for 1st time in history
—Slashing detention
—Exempting UAC & families from T42
—Ending T42
—Ending DNA testing to disrupt fake families, child trafficking
—Ending domestic UAC enforcement
—Ceasing prosecutions
—Ordering ICE to exempt virtually all illegals, including criminals, from interior enforcement (and thus slashing interior removals to all-time record lows
—Ending worksite enforcement
—Lifting 243d visa sanctions
—Ending HARP/PACR
—Ending expanded ER in the interior
—Ending vast majority of ER at the border
—Ending border wall construction”
https://x.com/StephenM/status/1752138971365220709?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1752416515578622260%7Ctwgr%5E8924fd51fa6119ff0e1036bfa293a06d47edcd05%7Ctwcon%5Es3_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.kausfiles.com%2F
PD, I would distinguish between new entrants and those already here. I agree that Trump will reinstate his executive orders but that won’t do much about those already here.
I suspect that dealing with those already here will prove much thornier than he realizes. For one thing there are due process issues, even for those with prior convictions for violent crimes. For another I suspect the legacy media will be publicizing every sob story of every person that the new administration tries to deport which will make the Congress weak in the knees.
I know universal e-verify is often proposed and its a necessary part of a solution, but it probably does a lot less then it appears.
Because most migrants since 2021 are asylum seekers. While they are waiting for the government to approve or reject the asylum application, they are granted an “EAD”, a work authorization. They would not be affected by universal e-verify.
Given determination of asylum applications are taking a decade right now (before potential appeals during which they could continue to work), universal e-verify wouldn’t change incentives of any current or prospective migrants.
The SCOTUS last year reaffirmed the the doctrine of consular nonreviewability of executive officer’s to admit or exclude an alien. For one thing that means due process claims typically need to be presented by someone other than the alien who must claim some fundamental right has been denied by the government. In the Munoz case that was the citizen-spouse, claiming her rights of marriage which are deeply rooted in American history were being denied. The SCOTUS disagreed, immigration was deemed from the founding of the country as “of favor . . . not a right.” (J. Madison) Note that the procedural right the citizen was seeking was to be informed of the reason for the government action, which having received she could respond. The basic premise of due process is notice and meaningful opportunity to respond. That immigration law doesn’t require these sends another message about the nearly unchecked executive discretion in this area. Beyond the theoretical, the only process due is the process required by Congress.
Biden revoked Trump’s executive orders on immigration enforcement and replaced it with a policy that required pre-approval for the administration’s enforcement priorities. The SCOTUS ruled the policy was an exercise of prosecutorial discretion. The policy limited, delayed, reversed and discouraged enforcement actions, and was in no way required by statute. The part about not taking enforcement action to remove people that arrived before November 1, 2020, seems to be a proto-amnesty provision. There are no due process issues in enforcing immigration law against someone who says they arrived October 31, 2020.