25 Years After

James Joyner has a fine round-up of posts and articles relating to the commemoration of the anniversary of the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001. I’m going to devote this post to a few ramblings of my own on that subject.

There have been many changes as a consequence of 9/11. Many of them are institutional; fewer have improved our actual security. Key issues include

• American military presence in the Middle East
• Islamist terrorism
• Intelligence
• Airport security
• Surveillance
• Federal bureaucracy
• War powers
• Fiscal consequences
• National unity

The reality is that we solved the specific problem that occurred on September 11 rather better than we solved the general problem it exposed. It is now extraordinarily difficult to hijack four airliners simultaneously and use them as guided missiles. Cockpit doors, passenger behavior, intelligence and screening make a literal replay of the events of 9/11 unlikely. The absence of another comparable attack over 25 years shouldn’t simply be waved away as luck.

It still remains the case that a small, determined organization could exploit the enormous complexity and openness of modern American society, while American institutions had great difficulty recognizing a threat that did not fit their existing categories. That problem hasn’t gone anywhere.

American military presence in the Middle East

Before the September 11, 2001 the U. S. is estimated to have around 25,000 troops in the Middle East; now it has double that. Our presence in the Middle East is now more greatly institutionalized and dispersed.

Islamist terrorism

After 2001 roughly a quarter million people have been killed in Islamist terrorist attacks.

Intelligence

Our intelligence gathering has been reorganized greatly over the last 25 years.

Airport security

Airport security and screening is much more visible and intrusive than it was 25 years ago. Although around $4 billion is collected per year in federal security fees associated with each departure, we spend an additional $8 billion per year on airport security and screening.

Surveillance

One of the greatest changes on the domestic scene over the last 25 years is in the area of surveillance of people in the U. S. Authorities and institutional arrangements created or expanded after 9/11 have become normal parts of American government while technology has made surveillance vastly easier.

Federal bureaucracy

The creation of the Department of Homeland Security following 9/11 consolidated 22 federal agencies and departments. GAO has documented persistent problems integrating their acquisition, financial, information technology, and personnel systems. That is broadly consistent with what I predicted at the time: consolidation would add another bureaucratic layer rather than actually simplify the federal government’s security apparatus.

War powers

The post-9/11 period greatly normalized presidential military action without anything resembling the notional congressional declaration-of-war process.

Fiscal consequences

Federal post-9/11 war expenditures and obligations have been about $8 trillion, including military operations, homeland security, veterans’ care and other costs.

National unity

The increased national unity in the immediate aftermath of the attacks was fleeting. The lamented blog American Future documented that the New York Times started running editorials against George W. Bush about six weeks after the attacks.

I think a lot of the actions of the TSA are more theater than producing security. For two years I unknowingly carried an X-Acto knife in my computer bag while flying. I didn’t discover it because airport security found it. I discovered it myself. During those two years the bag had repeatedly gone through airport screening. If a security system designed in response to 9/11 could repeatedly miss a boxcutter carried by someone who wasn’t even trying to conceal it, exactly what did all of that screening accomplish?

We changed our institutions much more than we changed ourselves.