As I read George Friedman’s article on the strategic importance of Romania, it occurred to me that there is quite a bit of confusion among Americans about Russia’s objectives, even among extremely well-informed Americans.
I think that Putin’s Russia should be understood as having a hierarchy of values. In rough form these values are:
- Russian
- Slavic
- Orthodox
- Traditionally part of Russia
Using that as a gauge it’s pretty easy to discern why the Russians are less concerned about Estonia becoming part of NATO than they are about Ukraine.
Estonia, obviously, is not Russia or Russian. The Estonians are not Slavs. The majority are not Orthodox—most are Lutherans, at least nominally.
Estonia is not traditionally part of Russia or even a possession of Russia’s. It was ceded to Russia by Sweden in the middle of the 18th century and remained part of the Russian Empire until the Estonian War of Independence in 1918. It was re-occupied by the Russians during World War II. The Russians don’t consider Estonian lands to be part of Russia.
Contrast that with Ukraine. Ukraine has been part of Russia for a millennium. Kiev is the foundation of Russia, at least notionally. The Ukrainians are Slavs and they were Orthodox (most are non-religious now). When you couple that with the strategic issues (the port at Sevastopol), Russia’s need to keep Ukraine within the fold becomes clear.
Let’s use that model to evaluate Russian intentions with respect to Romania. Romania is not Russian and has never been Russian. The Romanians aren’t Slavs. They are Orthodox. Nowadays Romania doesn’t have a great deal of strategic significance.
The long and the short of it is that the Romanians probably don’t have a great deal to worry about from the Russians.
The framework to understanding Russian policy in the linked piece is that Russia, cognizant of the lessons of WWI and WWII, seeks to recreate a buffer of dependable states against land invasion. That’s an interesting motivation; I am not sure it is “realistic,” as opposed to viewing countries as personalities with their own set of experiences and learning. But if it’s true, who does Russia think will do the invading?
Oh, my goodness, Americans are going to have to find out (read be scaremongered about) about Eurasianism and national bolshevism and other accretions which might threaten unipolar global capitalist-Zionist hegemony.
http://www.nybooks.com/daily/2016/04/19/trumps-putin-fantasy/
With the Russians, there is always somebody who will invade, whether the Mongol Horde, Lithuanian knights, American Spring Breakers, etc.
Something to consider, in the days of Country Joe, there were mass relocations of ethic Russians to the Baltics, Ukraine (and other regions) while unreliables in those areas went to count trees. Which allows Putin to readily find oppressed Russians, helpers for his little green men when and where needed.
But if it’s true, who does Russia think will do the invading?
The European Caliphate, headquartered in Berlin? Sub-Saharan Africans in their (future) billions? Dollar Shave Club?
The Estonians, like the Finns and Lapps, aren’t even Indo-Europeans. They’re some left over from before the Anatolian farmers showed up.
The real problem in not Russian revanchism, it is American imperialism. Since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, Russia has intervened in just three countries: Georgia, Ukraine and Syria. In the first two, it interceded on the behalf of ethnic Russians, and in Syria it supports a long-time ally.
The US record is sordid in the extreme: Sudan, Somalia, Kosovo/Serbia, Iraq (three times), Afghanistan (twice), Ukraine, Libya, Egypt, Syria, Yemen (by proxy) and drones everywhere. The US is a rogue, terrorist state and the main source of death and chaos in the world. The American President is a serial mass murderer. America itself is a shamocracy ruled by a small, debauched oligarchy. Unfortunately for the American people, the ruling oligarchs are simultaneously extending their empire while crippling the military. Soon, thousands of deluded young Americans will die serving in imperial outposts for no reason.
It is hard not to be a Russophile and Putin supporter. The world desperately needs and anti-American alliance.
I don’t think that fits the historical record. The speakers of the Finno-Ugric languages, who include the Estonians, Finns, Lapps, and Hungarians, appear to have arrived after the “Anatolian farmers” rather than before.
The Basques and speakers of the various non-Indo European languages of the Caucasus are better candidates for that.