Why Biden Will Be the Nominee

At FiveThirtyEight Nate Silver explains how a “contested convention”, the modern term for what used to be called a “brokered convention” could happen:

I’d say a contested convention is a case where the nomination outcome is genuinely in doubt at the time the convention begins.

I realize that this introduces a little bit of subjectivity (what does “genuinely in doubt” mean?).2 The problem is that the most common alternative definition — that a contested convention is any convention that requires multiple ballots — doesn’t capture the spirit of a contested convention very well.

That’s because there could be situations where a convention nominally required multiple ballots to resolve, but the outcome wasn’t contentious. Say in the scenario above — where Warren had won a clear plurality of pledged delegates — everyone agreed that the best way to ensure party unity behind Warren would be to have Biden and Sanders delegates respect the original primary and caucus vote on the first ballot and vote for Biden and Sanders. Then everybody would get behind Warren as a show of force on the second ballot. Moreover, say all of this was scripted and widely disclosed to the press weeks ahead of the convention. It’s hard to think of this being a contested convention in any meaningful respect.

Conversely, it’s possible to imagine the outcome being genuinely in doubt — but the relevant negotiations to resolve the deadlock take place before the first ballot is cast. Say, for instance, that after the Virgin Islands, the delegate count was Sanders 32 percent, Biden 28 percent, Amy Klobuchar 25 percent, and Warren 15 percent. There’s a lot of doubt about the identity of the nominee when everyone gathers in Milwaukee. But Biden offers Klobuchar the vice presidency in exchange for Klobuchar instructing her delegates to vote for Biden on the first ballot. Klobuchar agrees and almost all of her delegates go along, so Biden is nominated with 53 percent of the vote on the first ballot. To me, that ought to count as a contested convention, even though it technically required only one ballot.

I think the most likely outcome is that Joe Biden will come to the convention with a plurality of pledged delegates with Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and, possibly, Pete Buttigieg, each coming to the convention with fewer pledged delegates. Under those circumstances the superdelegates would become vitally important and they will overwhelmingly support Biden, just as the system was designed to ensure.

The Iowa caucuses, which take place a week from Monday, will be a test of sorts of that. I think that, despite all of the hoopla, Joe Biden is likely to win more pledged delegates than any of the other candidates, probably 40% with Sanders receiving about 30% and Warren and Buttigieg each receiving about 15%. Unless Klobuchar somehow manages to break through and secure 15% or more of the delegates, she is likely out of the race entirely.