Well, I dug around for a recent poll of popular opinion in Belarus and came up with this (PDF). If you don’t feel like reading it, it doesn’t provide a great deal of support for the WaPo’s view.
Among the finds were that
- opinion is sharply divided on Lukashenka
- a lot of Belarusians think he’s a crook
- Russia is pretty popular among Belarusians
- Heck, China is more popular among Belarusians than either the EU or us
- Only a minority of Belarusians support the demonstrations
The conclusion that I would draw is that if the Europeans want to impose sharp sanctions on Belarus, Russia, or both, that’s up to them. Our best posture is dignified silence. As usual I think we should be the well-wisher of the freedom and independence for everyone but the vindicator only of our own.
Maybe you’re skeptical of any poll of Belarusian opinion. I would welcome evidence that contradicts any of the above. Angry protesters don’t necessarily tell you what the majority of Belarusians think.
My understanding is that Russians think Lukashenka is a clown and perhaps something should be done about him, unlike how they felt about the situation in Ukraine in which anti-Russian sentiment was front and center. So, if other countries thinks that Lukashenka should leave, there is probably amble diplomatic room to maneuver working with Russia; anything else is probably just self-serving symbolic action.
We have our own problems, or can’t the MIC find a way to monetize the border crisis?