What’s Wrong?

I don’t say he’s a great man. Willie Loman never made a lot of money. His name was never in the paper. He’s not the finest character that ever lived. But he’s a human being, and a terrible thing is happening to him. So attention must be paid. He’s not to be allowed to fall in his grave like an old dog. Attention, attention must finally be paid to such a person.

Arthur Miller, “Death of a Salesman”

In his latest Wall Street Journal column Walter Russell Mead asks a pair of intertwined questions. Why are voters in the UK, France, and Germany rebelling against the status quo? And if they’re rebelling when conditions are, at least on average, pretty good, how will they react when the inevitable downturn occurs?

The turbulence in these countries, pillars of European and indeed world order, isn’t just about particular leaders. Their entire political systems have come under strain. In the U.K., even before the Brexit referendum, the rise of the Scottish National Party and Jeremy Corbyn’s victory over the moderate wing of the Labour Party had already transformed the political system. In France, Mr. Macron came to power as the existing party system imploded. In Germany, the antiestablishment Left and Alternative for Germany parties have been steadily gaining strength as centrist parties falter in the polls.

It’s one thing for political systems to face populist revolts when times are bad. President-elect Jair Bolsonaro’s victory in Brazil came on the heels of a deep recession and a massive corruption scandal. Voters turned against a political establishment that was corrupt and economically inept. Italy’s populists came to power in a country where, a decade after the financial crisis, gross domestic product has not yet returned to 2008 levels. Persistent crime and poverty helped elevate a left-wing populist to the presidency in Mexico.

But that is not what is happening in Europe’s Big Three. The German economy under Ms. Merkel is the envy of much of the world. Britain’s economy has also done relatively well, with unemployment low and declining despite uncertainty from Brexit. And while growth in France is slow, it is real; average wages as reported by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development rose more than 1% a year between 2007 and 2017. Any material grievances voters may have are not extreme by historical standards.

The discontent shaking Europe’s governments, and the anger reverberating through American politics, comes as times are about as good as they get. The crash of 2008 and the Great Recession are far behind us, and most countries are at the peak of their business cycles. Conventional political science suggests this should be a better environment for incumbent politicians. People normally get cranky when the economy is doing badly but mellow out as things improve. Now a long period of steady if not exceptional growth is in the rearview mirror, but voters are in revolt across much of the West.

I think I can answer those questions. Ordinary people are working hard or at least they think they’re working hard. Promises have been made or at least they think that promises have been made. They don’t see those promises being fulfilled but they do see the lifestyles of their leaders and the economic elite. They see their lives changing irrevocably and not, from their point of view, for the better.

And those leaders respond by ignoring their concerns, dismissing them. Attention must be paid.

I’ve issued this warning before but maybe it’s time for me to do it again. Kicking the can down the road indefinitely is not a viable strategy. The choices are between smart and prudent change or foolish and ill-conceived change not between hoping it will all blow over and making changes that upset your own cozy circumstances.