When I rise tomorrow morning I expect the number of diagnosed cases of COVID-19 worldwide will have exceeded 1 million. That’s a large number but still a tiny fraction of the total human population—about .013%. I expect the number in the United States to start closing in on 250,000—about .076%. The case fatality rate is around 2%. In some states like New York it’s a bit more. Here it’s almost exactly 2%.
I don’t think that anybody, except possibly the head of the World Health Organization, actually believes the numbers the Chinese have reported. I’ve seen estimates everything from twice as large to forty times as large, both for cases and deaths.
Italy continues to be the best example of a bad example. It’s number of deaths per million population is the highest in the world—218, more than an order of magnitude higher than ours or just about anybody else’s except Spain. I presume that the Italian response will be studied for years to come.
South Korea remains the brightest hope. On the positive side it’s barely possible they’ve reached an inflection point—the number of deaths seems to be declining. On the negative side new cases continue to be reported and the number of new cases is inching up to exceed the number of new recoveries.
There has been a report of another prospective treatment: HC + Z-Pak + Zinc. I suspect that some brave physicians will continue to experiment with new treatments until a provably effective treatment is found.
From what I’ve observed in my walks today unless eliminating the spread within crowds is enough to “bend the curve” any hope of doing so is a fantasy. Cops idle their prowl cars a foot from one another and talk through the windows to each other. Lawn crews and other workmen continue as though nothing out of the ordinary were going on, not observing “social distancing”. People stand within a few feet of their neighbors, shooting the breeze. I sometimes actually need to challenge people for them to give me enough space.