What Happens?

I’ve said before that I think John McCain will defeat Hillary Clinton at the polls. Hillary Clinton won’t excite the Democrats as much as Barack Obama and will unite Republicans in opposition to her.

What happens if Barack Obama is the Democratic candidate for the presidency? I think it’s too close to call at this point and suspect that much will depend on circumstances over which neither candidate has any control: the world situation, the economy, and so on.

3 comments… add one
  • PD Shaw Link

    There is currently too much focus on national head-to-head polling. I think it might still be Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania that are decisive. (The alternative electoral map theory focusses on the purpling of the West, a development less likely with McCain) And in at least one recent poll, Clinton does better than Obama against McCain in Ohio. There haven’t been enough of these types of state polls though.

  • Obama taking the Democratic nomination is the only way that I can see to get me to vote for McCain. In a Clinton/McCain matchup, I don’t see daylight between them on substantial matters of policy, and little enough on ethics. (Keating Five, anyone?) In that event, I’m writing in someone that I think would be a fine president.

    In terms of how the country will go, there is an as-yet unsettled question: will there be a third-party challenge from Bloomberg? If there is, then New York likely goes to McCain as Bloomberg and Clinton split the Democrat and independent vote (yes, I know the nominal party of Bloomberg, even if I’m not sure that I’m spelling his name correctly), and McCain wins. If not, then it’s a squeaker, and might be as close as 2000, or nearly so. I think that the key would be, as you note, events beyond the candidates’ control. But I think that Clinton has an edge, if only because the media will reliably deliver every vote they can to the Democrats, regardless of their or the Republicans’ actual candidates.

  • The one interesting thing about the possibility of a McCain vs Obama matchup will be watching them try to win middle. The debates should be interesting to say the least.

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