Menzie Chinn projects that, if the “Bush tax cuts” are allowed to elapse in full, it means no growth in 2013 relative to 2012. Sounds about right to me. He goes on to say:
I much prefer the President’s proposal (described here), which includes letting the rates rise on the top bracket (as I outlined in this post). But EGTRRA and JGTRRA (aka the Bush tax cuts) have constrained our fiscal policy for a decade, and as Jeff Frieden and I discussed in Lost Decades, contributed to the financial crisis of 2008. With ever greater impact on tax revenues going forward, these provisions should end (although I would prefer to delay rate increases on middle incomes).
I would very much like to see a one paragraph quantitative statement of how much the tax cuts have constrained federal spending. What would it have been without them?
I certainly don’t see it. It’s possible we’d have less debt on the balance sheet but I haven’t seen a great deal of spending restraint by either party over the last decade.