A simple exercise that I find useful in considering what politicians are likely to do in any given circumstance is to imagine that the politician is standing at a podium announcing the policy.
So, for example, imagine that you’re the President, you’re standing at a podium, you’re making a speech to the American people. Then imagine you’re the press asking follow-up questions or the President’s political opposition or political ad-writers for the President’s political opposition, poking the obvious holes in the policy.
If you can’t imagine any way that a policy can be announced without opening the speaker up to political attack, it probably won’t be. It’s generally a lot easier for me to imagine the President or Majority Leader of the Senate, for example, saying one thing and doing the opposite.
As me auld mither puts it, it’s easier to ask for forgiveness than for permission.
Okay, now that you’ve got that under your belt imagine that we’ve withdrawn our forces from Iraq. Try to imagine the President giving a speech advocating a re-invasion of Iraq. If you can’t imagine that (as I can’t), do you think it could actually happen?