At RealClearPolitics political scientists David Brady and Brett Parker consider the likelihood that the 2018 midterms will be a “wave election” (defined as an election in which 30 or more House seats change hands to the minority party):
These numbers for Democrats are approximately equal to their 2006 figures, while the Republican numbers are below theirs in the 2010 and 1994 wave elections. Across every strength category, Democrats are signaling that they will vote Democratic for Congress at higher rates than Republicans. The Democratic advantage in numbers, and their September vote intention, are good portents for the party.
Time and events before November could change these indicators. However, the odds of the generic ballot and party identification shifting to the Republicans between now and Election Day are not good. One group that could affect these results is independents, who vote less than partisans and make up their minds later in the campaign. In the latest poll, independents lean 28 percent to 26 percent for Democrats, with 29 percent saying not sure; if these percentages carry over till November the Democrats’ numerical advantage will prevail.
Looking at 2018 less than two months before the election gives the Democrats the advantage in numbers, vote intention and a small lead among independents, all of which point to a Democratic takeover of the House of Representatives. The missing variable is, of course, turnout.
I don’t know what’s going to happen. Something depends on how much you can trust poll results. Another wildcard is how the Kavanaugh matter will affect turnout.
It could go either way. The events have energized both Republicans and Democrats. It may come down to who is more outraged.
Nate Silver’s aggregation of the House and Senate polls show that Democratic chances of taking the House and Senate dropped 6 and 4.3 percentage points respectfully btw/ September 30th and October 1st.
House went from 78.9% to 72.9%. Senate from 30.3% to 26.0%. This is the simplest forecast that just uses district polling, adjusted for house effects, not things like Presidential approval ratings, so I would expect such a uni-directional shift in one day. Maybe a bunch of polls are released on Oct. 1?
After the last couple of years, I’m much more skeptical of polling an “expert” analysis. Still, it seems likely the historical trend will repeat itself.
I’m now, sadly, living in an uncompetitive GoP district, but then my Florida district wasn’t competitive either. Regardless, I’m hoping the Democrats do take the house. The justification for divided government, always strong, is stronger than ever.
I would assume. IMO you’ve got to look at stocks and flows, trends as well as levels. Picking the one that gives you the answer you want isn’t analysis.
Where things are on October 3 doesn’t really matter much. What matters is where things stand on November 6.
To bolster Dave’s point; in 2016; the Access Hollywood tapes became public on Oct 7. Wikileaks started publishing emails on Oct 7/8. Hillary’s email investigation was reopened on Oct 28.
So Kavanaugh may well be THE October surprise, but there’s plenty of time for another October surprise; and a November surprise.
My judgement through is given how it is going, the Kavanaugh story will dominate the news for at least 2 more weeks.
Here’s funny factoid. In 2016; Trump actually never went over 45% in RealClearPolitics. In fact he never went over 44% except for 7 days – July 25-27, Oct 1, Oct 31-Nov 2.
The chaser is that on RealClearPolitics, Trumps Job Approval rating as of today is 44%.
The pundits, as well as the dems themselves, seem confident the House will change hands. In fact, people like Jerrold Nadler are getting ready to assume leadership roles they assume will be theirs in the next Congress.
Unlike PD, I live in a very liberal CA district, so my perspective, as well as any look into the future, sees only more liberal policies rolling out of Sacramento. I wish it were more competitive here, but voices and opinions like mine don’t count.
I do think, though, Kavanaugh’s senate judiciary committee brutalization will have an effect in the mid west, raising the possibility of at least holding, if not adding onto the Senate. People are frustrated with the behavior of dem activists, that’s for sure. But, it’s more in the geographical areas where people seem to weigh real evidence against emotional allegations, and then wonder what makes Professor Ford such a heroine. BTW, she never finished her training, nor got a license, but still insists on being called “doctor.” Also, the building permit was issued in 2007, work finished in 2008 where that second door was added, becoming part of a future bootleg unit (illegal in Palo Alto), rather than an escape hatch for her recovered memories syndrome . These are just 2 of many mysterious pieces of misinformation relayed by her, both under oath and just passed on in the news media.
OT, While I often see many of Trump’s remarks as off putting, last night’s comments, challenging the veracity of Prof. Ford’s 36-year-old allegations, were a welcome breath of fresh air. Everyone is tiptoeing around on egg shells, so as not to tweak the sensitivity of women should one even question Ford’s almost useless recollections. IMO, however, this emerging dialogue that, “Women are right and can’t have any of their stories refuted” is nuts, and totally dismissive of men and their side of an event. So, when Trump opened up on Ford, it was as if he was mouthing what so many are afraid to utter in public, for fear of overwhelming, abusive reprisals from the left.
We are rapidly becoming a country devoid of honest debate and inquiry. That is what really bothers me the most.
And THAT’S why Trump got elected.