There’s more evidence that the strain of SARS-CoV-19 that was faced in China, Japan, and South Korea (and possibly Germany) was different from the one we’re trying to deal with. From the University of Sheffield (the actual study seems to be here):
- Researchers tracking the spread of Covid-19 around the world have discovered that viruses with a new variant have now overtaken the original strain
- Analysis of the virus’s genome sequence found a mutation called ‘D614G’ made the virus more infectious than the original strain, but did not cause more severe disease
- The global research team, including scientists from the University of Sheffield, had previously noted the rapidly increasing prevalence of viruses with D614G throughout the world
The study, published today in the journal Cell, shows the variation is more infectious in cell cultures under laboratory conditions. The variant, named ‘D614G’, makes a small but effective change in the ‘spike’ glycoprotein that protrudes from the surface of the virus, which it uses to enter and infect human cells.
The D614G variant of Covid-19 quickly took over as the dominant strain soon after it first appeared, with geographic samples showing a significant shift in viral population from the original, to the new strain of the virus.
IMO that lends a bit of weight to something about which I’ve speculating for some time—that there are limitations to how much of different countries’ or states’ outcomes in dealing with COVID-19 can be attributed to policy rather than just dumb luck. I guess the open question is how much immunity contracting one strain of the virus conveys against contracting other strains.
It makes sense that the virus, (any virus) should evolve to become more infectious but less deadly, since it’s intent (if it could intend) is to replicate.
But on the other hand, it doesn’t always happen. Take smallpox. Over a thousand years of misery and it took human action to rid us of it. A thousand years of experimentation with inoculation:
https://www.sciencemuseum.org.uk/objects-and-stories/medicine/smallpox-and-story-vaccination
The rapid and constant mutating of the COVIDs argue against there being any effective vaccine against Kung Flu. Only one successful vaccine was ever produced, for dogs, and its effectiveness was limited. The new normal is going to be we’re going to have a new flu wave every year until it mutates itself into nothing much.