The Risks

At Outside the Beltway James Joyner calls for removing President Trump from office on grounds of mental unfitness under the 25h Amendment:

This is sad and dangerous. It’s why the 25th Amendment provides procedures for ousting a President who’s demonstrably not up to the job. Instead of embarrassing themselves in public praising him, his top advisors need to seriously consider pulling the plug.

Just for the record and for the umpteenth time, I did not vote for Trump, I think his demeanor is awful, I think some of his policies are wrong, but I think that some of them are right.

I hope that James recognizes the risks in what he’s proposing. If Trump is removed Mike Pence will become president. The ball will be in the Democrats’ court then. If President Pence encounters the same level of resistance that Trump has, Trump’s supporters will, rightly, see the entire Resistance as an attempted coup. There are already serious, sober people who aren’t died in the wool Trump supporters who see the Trump-Russia collusion story as an attempted coup.

There would be a genuine risk of an actual, shooting civil war and IMO no good would come of that.

38 comments… add one
  • PD Shaw Link

    I like how James studiously avoids using the actual language of the 25th Amendment.

  • CuriousOnlooker Link

    Cambridge dictionary – sudden illegal, often violent, taking of government power…

    Since the 25th amendment is part of the constitution itself; the use of it to gain power by definition cannot be a coup.

    The risks are probably spot on through.

  • It is not the use of the 25th Amendment per se that concerns me. What concerns me is the aftermath. After removing Trump intemperate opposition to Pence or an attempt at removing him via legal or parliamentary means could evoke an armed response from Trump’s supporters.

    PD:

    I presume you’re referring to Section 4:

    Whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as Acting President.

    Thereafter, when the President transmits to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives his written declaration that no inability exists, he shall resume the powers and duties of his office unless the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive department or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit within four days to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office. Thereupon Congress shall decide the issue, assembling within forty-eight hours for that purpose if not in session. If the Congress, within twenty-one days after receipt of the latter written declaration, or, if Congress is not in session, within twenty-one days after Congress is required to assemble, determines by two-thirds vote of both Houses that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall continue to discharge the same as Acting President; otherwise, the President shall resume the powers and duties of his office.

    In the first paragraph it would need to be the first clause, “Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments” since Congress has not already put in place such an alternative and doing so now would require Trump’s signature or a veto override, something not likely to be forthcoming.

    It would obviously require the additional certification of paragraph 2 and even then would require a two-thirds vote of the Congress.

    All this by way of saying that this is all so far-fetched as barely to be worthy of consideration and, even if effected, would throw the country into chaos.

  • PD:

    I’m monitoring the comments on that thread and it is genuinely amazing how much the commenters conflate incompetence, political disagreement, and personal aversion.

    Do I think that Trump is insane? No. Do I think he’s a jerk? Yes. Do I think that everything he does is wrong? Some is, some isn’t.

  • TastyBits Link

    @Dave Schuler

    … so far-fetched as barely to be worthy of consideration …

    Being a progressive means never having to accept reality.

    Do I think that Trump is insane? No. Do I think he’s a jerk? Yes. Do I think that everything he does is wrong? Some is, some isn’t.

    To progressives, you are a Trump supporter.

    Also, it is bizarre that to be a #NeverTrumper, you must be pro-Hillary Clinton. Being a Trump-hater means never having to accept logic.

  • To progressives, you are a Trump supporter.

    That’s exactly what I’ve been trying to explain to steve. In another post he stated that those he referred to as “the persuadable” would be courted and accepted by the Democratic base. Not only will “the persuadable” (those who voted for Trump in 2016 but are disinclined to vote for his re-election) be rejected so will those like me who didn’t vote for him in 2016 and aren’t inclined to vote for him in 2020 but who don’t hate Trump enough. I don’t believe that’s a winning formula for the Democrats.

  • PD Shaw Link

    The operative language in the 25th Amendment is “unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office.” I don’t see how anything he said addresses this, or would not be the appropriate subject of impeachment.

  • I guess my point is that the 25th Amendment is not a viable end run around impeachment. Those who want to get rid of Trump will need the same number of votes to remove him via the 25th Amendment that they would to impeach and convict.

  • jan Link

    I used to post @ OTB, but left years ago to never return. There is simply no flexibly of political thought on that blog. With the addition of Trump Manic Depression, the place likely is even more intolerant of intellectual diversity.

    Regarding Trump’s state of mind – he is perfectly sane, but as Dave says, can be a “jerk” in his words. In noting the relief from over regulation, along with an increase in overall economic optimism and work opportunities, I think Trump has been better for this country than his predecessor. Consequently, for me, I tend to give more weight to his helpful policies over his crass personality. Also, in looking at the daily dem behavior these days, what is so appetizing about their foolish, disheveled approaches to governance?

  • jan Link

    Also, the almost daily reveals of the “Russiagate” genesis ,” how it evolved domestically and abroad, and the major intelligence players running defense is mind-blowing. The fact that the lengthy Mueller investigation gambit appears to have been constructed on falsehoods should be troubling for anyone, no matter their party preference or ideology.

    Furthermore, the push to declassify papers documenting all the activities, personnel, timelines surrounding this unsavory event seems more indicative of someone trying to cleanse the system, versus muddy it up, like the dems who are actively pushing back on said disclosures and political transparency.

  • PD Shaw Link

    @Dave, I was just explaining my problem with James’ posting. He was a political science professor.

    But, removal by impeachment only requires a majority vote from the House and two-thirds vote from the Senate. The disability provision requires a vote of two-thirds of both chambers within 21 days. Its a narrower, more limited, and more difficult procedure overall.

  • @Dave: Recognizing that removal under the 25th is a fantasy, I think it’s less divisive than impeachment. The latter would almost always seem like a partisan affair. If VP Pence and a majority of a cabinet Trump hand-picked declared him incompetent, it would seem like an honest choice.

    @TastyBits: I voted for every Republican nominee other than Trump since becoming eligible to vote, thus going back to the 1984 election. I would happily have voted for Bush or Kasich in 2016.

    @PDShaw: I’m fully aware of the provisions of Section 4 and have discussed them previously. I recognize that it’s not going to happen. But it seems clear to me that many, many high officials in the Administration think the President is a moron, a toddler, or senile. We have dozens of confirmation of that.

  • TastyBits Link

    @Dave Schuler

    I do not think @steve has Trump Derangement Syndrome. I think you are a classical liberal, and he is to the left of you and to the right of the OTB crowd.

    In my opinion, President Trump is to the right of you, but he is far to the left of most Republicans.

    @jan

    The OTB crowd ran off @Ben Wolf claiming he was a right-winger and Trump supporter, if I remember correctly.

    There was a post about the conservatives who had left, and they all agreed that they were open to any conservative, Republican, right-winger. Well, as long as they agreed with the OTB crowd.

    It was funny as heck. Somebody would propose a lost commenter, and the others deemed the lost commenter racist, misogynistic, etc. Meanwhile, they were awestruck by their open mindedness.

  • PD Shaw Link

    @James, my beef with your piece is you argue that the 25th Amendment applies to someone who is “demonstrably not up to the job,” when that is not at all what the 25th Amendment says. Not quoting the operative language appears to me to be intentional.

  • @PD Shaw: We’ve had previous discussions of the topic and the nature of blogging is that one presumes the audience has read those discussions and thus we don’t need to begin de novo.

    The operative language: “the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office.” It seems obvious to me that their collective opinion that he’s senile, crazy, imbecilic, or otherwise mentally not up to the job would qualify.

  • Andy Link

    James,

    You claim his cabinet has a “duty” to try to remove him via the 25th amendment, yet you say you understand the specific provisions of that amendment. By any objective measure, he does not meet the criteria for removal, which is incapacity.

    Armchair psychoanalysis and subjective assertions about being a moron or a toddler is not incapacity or a legitimate basis for removal and would be seen – rightly – as calling for a de facto coup.

    I was actually in the USSR in 1991 when Gorbachev was declared incapacitated by his own Vice President, and personally witnessed what unfolded that week in Moscow and the immediate aftermath. Fortunately, there was little violence, but that kind of event is something I do not want to see here.

    I’m frankly shocked that you would not only imply, but state emphatically, that the VP and Trump’s cabinet have a duty to remove him. In the 10+ years I’ve followed and read your blog that post is the most outrageous, anti-democratic, and unAmerican thing you’ve written. Such an attempted action would do more harm to the United States than 10 Trumps.

  • TastyBits Link

    @James Joyner

    If you walk like a progressive, talk like a progressive, and shit like a progressive, you are a progressive.

    I am not a Republican, and I dislike Republicans slightly less than I dislike Democrats. On many policy positions, Republicans have moved toward me, and I expect that when President Trump is gone, they will move away.

    As to being a Trump supporter, I would be just as amused with Sen. Sanders as president.

  • @Andy: We’ve not in my lifetime, and so far as I’m aware in the history of the Republic, seen anything like the inside consensus that the sitting President is mentally unstable. It’s been a recurring feature with Trump since at least the transition and seems to me to be getting much worse.

  • steve Link

    “To progressives, you are a Trump supporter.
    That’s exactly what I’ve been trying to explain to steve.”

    I dont think so. Sure, there is a minority who might think it but not anyone who actually reads you. I think our discourse would be greatly improved if we didnt keep sinking to the lowest common denominator.

    James- I agree that what you wrote was a fantasy. Not happening. They can find Trump with 2 dead boys and 2 dead girls and they arent deserting him.

    “There are already serious, sober people who aren’t died in the wool Trump supporters who see the Trump-Russia collusion story as an attempted coup.”

    Not very many, and most of those are quietly supporting Trump. This was no more of a coup that then 8 Benghazi investigations. The problem is that conservatives are pussies and dont like it when their same tactics get used back at them. Live by the investigation, die by the investigation.

    Andy- I lean more towards your side on this. There are always attempts by both sides to portray the POTUS in a good or bad light. There has been a steady stream of bad stuff coming out on Trump, but I dont know how much is real. I actually am a doctor, and some of what he says and how he says comes across to me as pre-senile dementia, but I know the perils of making a diagnosis from afar, so I won’t make that claim.

    All that said, let me ask you the following. Do you think there is anyone in the Trump administration, if all the bad things are really true, who would act on it and do the right thing and start the process to get rid of him? I do not. So I am kind of stuck here. The behavior I do see is incredibly far out of the norm, but I cant quite say it is egregious enough that he should go. For that we need to know what he is doing and saying in private. Are his aides having to “handle him”. For better or worse I think we just resign ourselves to his staying and get rid of him the old fashioned way with votes. (I do hope that the insiders publish some books about what really happened after Trump leaves office.)

    Steve

  • I think you are a classical liberal, and he is to the left of you and to the right of the OTB crowd.

    In my opinion, President Trump is to the right of you, but he is far to the left of most Republicans.

    @jan

    The OTB crowd ran off @Ben Wolf claiming he was a right-winger and Trump supporter, if I remember correctly.

    I think that assessment is pretty correct. If they think that Ben is a right winger, they aren’t listening. I believe he’s an anarcho-syndicalist, a pretty rare breed but just about as far left as it gets.

    By nature I look for points of agreement and Ben and I agree on issues of freedom and voluntary association. We also agree that there should be a better understanding of banking. TastyBits understands it; I understand it; Ben understands it. Where Ben and I disagree in that area is in risk assessment. I don’t have as much appetite for risk as he appears to have.

  • Andy Link

    James,

    “Mentally unstable” is a completely subjective opinion. Regardless, the notion that such an opinion is sufficient grounds to remove a President under the 25th amendment is mind-boggling idiocy.

    I’ve relayed here, but not at OTB, that I’m the legal guardian for my sister who has dementia. A county court granted me guardianship authority based on clear and incontrovertible evidence from multiple sources and medical professionals that my sister was “incapable” of managing her affairs or caring for her own needs. My sister was always a kook and less than stable, but she was still able to function and make decisions despite the fact that many of them were bad. It was only when she was ACTUALLY UNABLE to care for herself that the legal system stepped in. That is the appropriate standard.

    But here you argue for much less – that the President must be removed, and the VP and cabinet have a DUTY to remove him, based on subjective interpretations of second-hand and third-hand accounts of him flipping out at Speaker Pelosi, acting like a “toddler,” “moron” or whatever. Despite Trump’s many flaws, he is probably more mentally competent and aware that Reagan was in his final year.

    So Trump is perfectly able to carry out his duties as President despite the fact that he is a thin-skinned, vindictive, self-centered, norm-breaking asshole. Torturing the 25th amendment to try to remove him absent an actual incapacity would be a coup and would destroy this country.

  • PD Shaw Link

    @steve, I didn’t vote for Trump because I didn’t think he was qualified by relevant experience and demeanor. Your question to Andy goes to cognitive bias, and my bias is to see my assumptions demonstrated. But a lot of voters saw those things too, but as positives; arguably its why he was elected, so if qualifications are going to be used to undo such an election, its not unreasonable to suspect that the cure could be worse than the disease.

    During the campaign, there was a day where Trump made inconsistent statements about David Duke that I thought strongly suggested cognitive decline. But that seems like it should be expected when we elect Presidents at that age. Some cognitive functions begin declining in our late 20s. Was Reagan disabled, and at what point? McCain seemed to have moments. Rumors are circulating about Biden . . .

  • Andy Link

    Well said PD, I feel the same way.

  • TastyBits Link

    @steve

    I think insiders would complain that he could not be “handled”.

    What are the “norms” for a real estate developer who becomes a reality TV star and gets elected president?

    As to cognitive ability, his rallies are him talking for an hour without using the teleprompter. Basically, he does a stand-up routine, and he does it better than many comedians.

    He is a one man show, and most of the people around him are props. Does anybody really believe that President Trump is going to attack N Korea because John Bolton advises it? Really? No, really?

  • steve Link

    PD- I think I made it clear that I pretty much agree that the way Trump leaves office should be via the vote. I also think that you are correct about conservatives liking his behavior. The point which I am not conveying well is that I think that if we had a president who really was not able to function and hold office, that it would be covered up by those around the president. No one would do the right thing and act on the 25th Amendment.

    Steve

  • Guarneri Link

    Resolved. Trump’s demeanor is bad, at times he’s a jerk, and at times people agree or disagree with him on policy.

    This, and more, could probably be said at times about every president, and certainly about almost any politician. Its a selective critique of Trump to justify, variously, pure ideological disagreement, being childishly pissed off their gal or, god forbid, a John Kasich, didn’t win, and fear of loss of power, influence, economic gain derived from the traditional order.

    There is much that could be said, but its really not worth the keystrokes. James beclowns himself with that kind of speculative stuff. And they wonder why their commenters are almost totally populated by the wild eyed worthy of the Reefer Madness trailer.

  • PD Shaw Link

    @steve, I think we’ve had 25th Amendment situations, when Reagan had surgery to remove a cancerous polyp and when Bush II was anesthetized for a colonoscopy, but both Presidents agreed to the transfer in advance, so not that relevant.

    But yeah, the people that the President selects to be executive officers in his administration should be expected to be loyal and have positive feelings about the President. That’s part of the system design — Congress drafted that Amendment, and the standard was intended to be beyond political reproach.

  • jan Link

    Tasty,

    I can’t believe OTB ran off Ben Wolfe by assigning him as a “right winger.” IMO, Ben was a “thinking” liberal thinker, who at least listened to and seriously responded to opinions other than his own.

    As far as social progressive individuals, I have little patience nor respect for their way of interacting with those who see fair governance in far different terms than they do – one that calls the shots over the people rather than visa versa. Social Progressive’s level of intolerance is only rising, discouraging open debate and literally shunning those who don’t fit in with their PC contrived dialogues.

    As for supporting a Trump presidency, I do so because his policies tend to encourage the human spirit rather than chain them to government dependency. Just look at the small business growth, the opportunity zones being created, the right for terminal patients to try alternative medical treatments, vets ability to seek outside care, less people on food stamps, marginally higher wages, less bureaucratic red tape.

    I also think he is addressing foreign policy issues that have been “kicked down the road” by all recent administrations – involving rectifying NATO payments; not accepting “consensus science” on climate change, opting instead for an open debate on it; challenging China, North Korea and currently Iran ranging from unfair trade practices to unacceptable tyrannical behavior.

  • tarstarkas Link

    The reasons for trying to get rid of Trump are purely political ad personally economic. He’s not part of the political establishment, he refuses be ‘handled’ by them, and thus he’s threatening their power and more importantly their compensation. The process has also revealed how much the IC has been running foreign if not domestic policy for decades, with indifferent success (at best).

  • Andy Link

    I saw the thread where Stephen Taylor banned Ben Wolf. It seemed to me most of the OTB commentariat thought he was a trollish Bernie-bro, not necessarily a right winger (but the reality is there is a lot of cross-over between the extreme left and right on some things). Regardless, his comments there – at least the ones that I saw before he was banned – were pretty low effort and he didn’t give anyone much reason to give him the benefit of the doubt. Not that I agreed with banning him, but it’s not my blog.

    Steve,

    I missed that you addressed me earlier.

    “Do you think there is anyone in the Trump administration, if all the bad things are really true, who would act on it and do the right thing and start the process to get rid of him?”

    I would mostly agree with PD’s response. If someone in the administration had doubts about any President’s sanity, I think their duty is to make their concerns known, resign, and then make their concerns public if that’s what’s necessary. But it all depends on what you mean by “act on it.”

    Impeachment is supposed to be a last resort. The 25th is supposed to be for incapacitation. People inside government conspiring to topple the President because they believe he’s a whacko is something else entirely, which is what James is actually advocating. It’s not for them to decide – senior government officials are not praetorians – it’s for the people and their representatives to decide. Resign and speak – that is the noble and legitimate course of action.

  • Gray Shambler Link

    Trump’s speech pattern, incomplete sentences, hard to understand his meaning at times, lots of salesman- like puffery is unique, but has been also quite consistent over his presidency.
    What I have noticed is an increasing anger which should surprise no one considering the constant personal attacks he has endured.
    I think he watches far too much television news and rises to their bait too often.
    G.W. Bush claimed to not watch the news at all when he was asked about personal attacks by partisan networks.

  • @Andy: Fair enough on advanced dementia vice what we’re seeing with Trump. Given that the President pretty much IS the Executive branch of government and he’s entrusted with the nuclear codes, I nonetheless think Trump is dangerous. I nonetheless sympathize with Dave and others that his removal would be seen as a coup.

    Also, I think you get it right WTR Ben Wolf. Like a couple others, most recently including the former “Herb”/”James Pearce,” he was a longtime commenter that simply transformed over the years for whatever reason into what amounted to a troll. I really don’t care what positions commenters take on the site so long as they’re reasonably courteous and intellectually honest. Steven banned him after a series of personal insults questioning his integrity and I concurred in the decission.

  • Gray Shambler Link

    OTB comment:
    “You don’t think Koch and his henchmen own at least 20 GOP senators?

    The problem is they don’t own the racist, gun toting, SocSec loving rabble that is the base. They grabbed that tiger by the tail and they daren’t let go”

    People who would think this way are incredibly insulated, living in a house of mirrors, every opinion empathized, amplified and ratified.
    You can’t see that Trump voters used to be Democrats, and that the Democratic party has morphed into a social groupthink where we no longer belong. Trump is not deranged, he’s always been Trump. This column is about a political strategy that will fail, grasping at straws.
    If the Democratic party cannot put forward a leader who leads instead of blathers, they should just take a pass in 2020.

  • That is an excellent comment, Gray.

  • jan Link

    I find James Joyner’s “Trump analysis and insights” to be so personally tainted by his own disgust for the man, that they fit more in the category of insults rather than honest commentary.

    Just because a person has a blistering or caustic style of candidly talking, openly rails against protocols and practices he feels are damaging to the Republic (but are perfectly acceptable to the political consensus standards), doesn’t play the go-along-to-get-along routine expected in DC circles or foreign countries who don’t play well with our principles, doesn’t make him a crackpot, and someone unfit for for the office of U.S. President.

    Ironically, when Trump had a refueling stopover in Alaska yesterday, one media outlet described him as the “People’s President,” when he left the plane to cordially walk over, shake hands with, josh with military personnel on the sidelines. What i’ve seen in so many public settings is that Trump’s comfort zone is with the common man, the worker, vets, the family unit, small business and aspiring entrepreneurs …..and this makes him subject to be called “unfit for office?”

  • TastyBits Link

    @jan

    I fully agree.

    ——

    I only dip into the OTB comments if I think the topic will get the hive buzzing. At times, they would swarm @Ben Wolf if he disagreed with them. Like I said, I might not remember it correctly, but I think at least one commenter did accuse him of being a right-winger and Trump supporter.

    I am baffled as to why he kept commenting. I did not see any of his comments as extremely abusive, but I did not follow the threads to the end.

    (I did not know they actually banned him. I thought he stopped commenting like almost everybody that disagreed with them. “Peace, out.”)

    Now, @Drew does troll them.

  • steve Link

    ” the right for terminal patients to try alternative medical treatments,”

    This always a claim made by those who dont know squat about end of life issues and drug therapies. It irritates me to no end that people want to use dying people to promote this political agenda.

    “You can’t see that Trump voters used to be Democrats”

    Not that many, and a number of those were voting against Clinton.

    “Democratic party has morphed into a social groupthink where we no longer belong”

    The GOP is not in groupthink mode? I have never seen a party so completely owned by one person.

    “What i’ve seen in so many public settings is that Trump’s comfort zone is with the common man, the worker, vets, the family unit, small business and aspiring entrepreneurs”

    Here in the Northeast we have been subject to Trump for many years. He never associates with the common man. While he is traveling and there are cameras present while he is President, sure, but he spends his time away from the cameras at resorts and golf courses. You really have to be a full fledged cult member to believe he cares about the “common man”.

    Steve

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