This is the threat to us about which I’m most concerned—the belief on the part of some Chinese generals that China can defeat us in battle:
The bad news first. The People’s Republic of China now believes it can successfully prevent the United States from intervening in the event of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan or some other military assault by Beijing.
Now the good news. China is wrong—and for one major reason. It apparently disregards the decisive power of America’s nuclear-powered submarines.
That’s the sort of departure from reality that encourages adventurism. For years now Chinese generals have been making very provocative statements, frequently unremarked on by Western journalists.
It looks like they have been able to quieten the nuclear subs. This was a big problem, but I have not followed sub technology for years. The article does not mention undersea listening devices, and I am curious how much of the coastal waters the US has covered.
The biggest issue with a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is not whether or not the US could kick China’s ass. It is whether the US would kick China’s ass. Defending Taiwan against China means losing Chinese trade, but doing nothing means losing Taiwan trade. The Taiwan trade can be reestablished through China.
I suspect most of the delusional hawks will suddenly become realists. The dollar has a way of focusing the mind quickly.
David Axe is confused and the quoted portion is just plain wrong. The Chinese Generals think (according to one guy from NASIC who testified to Congress, mind you, judge the credibility of that as you see fit) that China is strong enough to deter the US from interfering with a Chinese attack on, for instance, Taiwan. Deter, not defeat. That the US sub fleet is very capable and could very well be decisive in a conflict is interesting but it’s not a counterargument to what the Chines are allegedly thinking. IOW the question isn’t whether the US could defeat a Chinese attack or invasion of Taiwan, the question is whether or not China is powerful enough to deter the US from trying. Relative military capabilities are obviously a factor in deterrence, but he seems to assume we won’t be deterred because of our submarines.
Foah suppah tonight in the Davenport-Gore household, it will be chili-Swiss steak served over black beans with brown rice, and a green salad on the side.
Wish you could be here, so-called Southern boy. You kids are stahvin’ up theah. No wondah y’all get sick.
Miss Janice, would, of course, be absolutely welcome, too. I even have PG Tips for her.
http://youtu.be/pg5wCJuPdXI