After my post on the econometric prediction that the odds are against the Democratic candidate prevailing in November, I thought you might be interested in another prediction, this time from a political scientist who studies election behavior. From The Daily Caller:
A political science professor who claims his statistical model has correctly predicted the results of every election except for one in the last 104 years has forecast that the odds of Donald Trump becoming America’s next president currently range from 97 percent to 99 percent.
The professor is Helmut Norpoth of Stony Brook University, reports The Statesman, the campus newspaper at the public bastion on New York’s Long Island.
Specifically, Norpoth predicts that Trump has a 97 percent chance of beating Hillary Clinton and a 99 percent chance of beating Bernie Sanders.
His model has successfully called the winner in every election since 1912 with the exception of the 1960 election. Here’s the point that’s too many are ignoring:
Norpoth’s general election formula measures candidates’ performances in primaries and caucuses to gauge party unity and voter excitement. It also focuses on certain patterns in electoral cycles. One major assumption is that the party which has just held the presidency for two consecutive terms is less likely to win a third term.
The emphasis is mine.
Don’t construe this or the previous post as my rooting for the Republicans. Far from it. What I think is that:
- the dynamics of American presidential elections favors a change of parties
- the present approval rate of the incumbent favors a change of parties
- Hillary Clinton is a weak candidate
That the Democratic Party can’t drum up any candidates who are less than 65 years old is a scandal and an outrage.